Electricity Demand Forecast Of City Power Grid Based On The New Economic Normal

Under the background of ―New Economic Norm‖,the future main theme of China’s development will be that the economic growth tends to be stable,and further optimize the industrial structure.That means that China’s extensive economic development model will be changed,high quality,innovative,detailed production methods will further change China’s energy and industrial structure.Nowadays,many new forms of economic normality have a superimposed effect on China’s city,such as,regional integration,along with all the way strategy,the development of free trade area,national independent innovation demonstration area construction and so on.These favorable policy factors will bring new opportunities and challenges to the development of China,and also play a strong stimulating role on the demand of power grid.We analyzed the macroeconomic indicators of ―New Economic Norm‖,energy and power development.The paper used LMDI theory to decompose the power demand into scale effect,structure effect and efficiency effect,in which the scale effect promotes the rise of electricity demand.However the structural and efficiency effect weaken the rise in electricity demand,and the influence from these two effects to electricity demand is growing stronger.In this paper,econometric model is used to explore the relationship between electricity demand and economic growth,temperature,power efficiency indu stry innovation ability and population.The results shown that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between electricity consumption,GDP,power utilization efficiency and industry innovation ability.The power demand forecast model combine econometrics and system dynamics together.Power consumption per unit output value and industry output value are the basic indicators in the power demand forecast model.In addition,the model also developed the new influencing factors which were brought by the new economic norm.The econometric part is used to analyze and establish the relationship between power consumption per unit output value and industry GDP with each influencing factor.On the basis of the former,the system dynamics applied the relationship model to the first industry,secondary industry,tertiary industry and residential modules to forecast the power demand.The forecast results show that the model has reasonable structure and good prediction precision.In addition,the model set up energy-saving scenarios and no energy-saving scenarios,that quantitatively analyzed the energy saving and emission reduction policy effect.Changes in electricity consumption between the secondary and tertiary industry will increase the system peak valley difference,industrial parks and electricity substitution will become new growth points for electricity demand,the increase of technological innovation and energy efficiency will enhance the energy-saving emission reduction standards and the proportion of electricity in the terminal energy consumption.To protect the stable development of the power industry and economic benefits,electric power enterprises and the government should improve the price mechanism,establish a continuous,stage policy support of electric power replacement.Electric power enterprises should carry out targeted,characteristic power supply services,improve the quality of power supply,shorten the business process,co-ordinate the allocation of electricity between large areas and other measures,strengthen the international cooperation with other countries.