Analysis Of Influencing Factors And Scenario Prediction Of Energy Demand In Baoding City

Energy is an important resource for economic development and social progress.With the continuous development of economy,global resource and environmental problems are becoming increasingly serious.Driven by economic recovery,China’s total energy demand keeps rising,and energy shortage has become one of the important factors restricting economic development.At the same time,with the gradual increase of energy demand,environmental pollution and climate problems are becoming more and more serious.Therefore,the total energy demand must be effectively controlled.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is the strategic highland of national development.Baoding city,as the central regional city of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated strategy,has also received considerable attention on its economic,resource and environmental problems.At the same time,Xiongan new district is located in the hinterland of Baoding.As a service city of Xiongan new district,Baoding’s development plays an important supporting role in further promoting the strategy of Xiongan new district.Therefore,it is very important to find the most suitable energy demand forecasting model for Baoding city and accurately predict the total energy demand of Baoding city,which is of great practical significance to the formulation of energy and urban planning suitable for Baoding city and the improvement of energy consumption demand side management.Based on the existing literature,this paper mainly studies the energy demand of Baoding city under the coordination of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the development strategy of Xiongan new district.Firstly,this paper analyzes the current situation of energy consumption in Baoding city and the existing problems in energy consumption in detail.Secondly,explore the main factors affecting energy demand in Baoding city.This part summarizes previous studies to conduct qualitative analysis on the influencing factors of energy demand in Baoding city,and USES LMDI decomposition method for quantitative analysis.The main factors influencing energy demand of Baoding city are determined: population scale effect,economic scale effect,structural effect,technological progress effect and residential energy consumption effect.The influence mechanism of different factors on energy consumption was studied according to the decomposition results.Thirdly,the energy demand forecasting model suitable for Baoding city is determined.Based on data associated with the energy demand of Baoding city from 2000 to 2016,the integrated use of grey prediction,the secondary exponential smoothing,partial least-squares regression method and the weighted combination model fitting of Baoding city energy demand curve respectively,and results show that combined model has higher prediction accuracy than other model,ultimately determine the portfolio model is most suitable for energy demand forecasting model of Baoding city.Fourth,predict the energy demand of Baoding city under different scenarios.Based on the basic forms of energy development in Baoding city,considering the strategies of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cooperation and Xiongan new district,two development scenarios of benchmark and high speed under different degrees of coordinated development were set up,and the trend of total energy demand in Baoding city under different scenarios was predicted.Finally,the paper puts forward corresponding policy Suggestions for the formulation of energy development strategy of Baoding city.