Research On Electric Power Demand Forecasting Model Of Guangdong Province Based On System Dynamics

The supply and demand balance of electric power is the guarantee basic condition for the steady development of economy,the research on changes of electricity market consumption and ensure the power balance between supply and demand are foundation of electricity sector,which also has great significance.In recent years,on the one hand some regions have electricity shortage,on the other hand some regions failed to give full play to the power supply capacity in Guangdong province,and an important reason for these problems is that the demand for electricity can't be long-term and effective forecasting.In this paper,we have proposed a electricity demand forecasting model of Guangdong province based on system dynamics,through analysis the limitation of some conventional electricity demand forecasting method existing and combined with the actual situation in Guangdong province.Firstly,this paper analyzes the characteristics of electricity demand forecasting,as well as the limitations of traditional electricity demand forecasting methods,and put forward the feasibility and necessity of application of system dynamics.Second,analysis the influence factors of Guangdong electric power demand forecasting,and summed up the economic growth,industrial restructuring,demographic factors,climatic factors,technical factors,market factors,policy factors,as the total of seven important influence factors.Then,determine the system target and borders,and dived four subsystems include primary industry,secondary industry and tertiary industry and residential electricity demand.Obtain a causal diagram and the feedback loop based on the analysis between influence factors and electricity demand.Build the system variable definition and structural equation established four sub-model flow diagrams,meanwhile use AHP and data standardization methods to determine the weight of the heavy impact of various factors and other relevant parameters,and test the effectiveness of model.Finally,forecasting the future demand of electricity by the model simulation based on historical data and current situation of Guangdong province.In addition,do sensitivity analysis to explore the model established by what kind of changes in electricity demand generation by making adjustments to different proportions of various factors.We put forward some policy recommendations,according to the results of model analysis.The system dynamics model for forecasting the electric power demand of Guangdong province,which reflects the change in power demand dynamically and also achieve the electricity demand forecast for Guangdong province.Enabling research of regional electricity demand from the perspective of development of economic and social,not only enriched the electricity demand forecasting methods can also be provide some reference for carryout the production and planning practices of power companies and the relevant departments,as well as has important theoretical research value and practical significance.