Research On Passenger Flow Forecast Of Urban Rail Transit Based On Travel Chain

With the rapid development of China's urban economy and the rapid growth of the number of motor vehicles as well as the influx of foreign population into the city,resulting in the loss of balance between urban traffic supply and demand,this has become a problem that the government is difficult to solve.However,a comfortable and efficient way of transportation should be carried out by rail transit.Rail transit has the advantages of large capacity and fast speed,but the line is relatively fixed so the lack of flexibility.Therefore,it is very important to study the convergence of rail transit and other modes of transportation.The study of the rail traffic around the convergence mode can not only get the passengers' transfer behavior,but also can get the demand of the traveler to the surrounding connection way.According to the results of the study,this paper provides a reference for the planning of the surrounding facilities,and further improves the efficiency of travelers.Firstly,this paper introduces the domestic and foreign scholars' research on individual travel behavior.Secondly,through the definition of each trip chain and the related theories,the definition of the rail traffic trip chain is summarized.Thirdly,the paper analyzes the scope and advantages and disadvantages of the set model and disaggregate model.It is found that the disaggregate model is more suitable for the study of rail transit trip chain.Then,this paper expounds the theoretical basis of the disaggregate model and compares the common models in the disaggregate model.Finally,the Logistic regression model is chosen as the sub model to form the 2 layer NL model to model the behavior of the travelers,Taking Qingdao City Huiquan square station applies case analysis to verify the model.The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)this paper summarizes the domestic and foreign scholars on the study of individual travel behavior,get a trip can be carried out by the "rail".Then,the research significance and the technical route of this paper are determined.(2)After defining the definition of each travel chain,we get the definition of rail transit chain.Analysis of the scope of application of disaggregate model and disaggregate model.This paper introduces the factors that influence the choice of rail transit connection mode from two aspects.At the same time,this paper expounds the principles of the questionnaire design,which lays the foundation for the design of the questionnaire of the fifth chapter.(3)It is found that the disaggregate model is more suitable for the study of the rail trip chain,so the theoretical basis of the disaggregate model is introduced in detail.The common models(MNL model,Logistic regression model,NL model)were compared and analyzed,and the Logistic regression model was selected as the sub model to form the 2 layer NL model to model the rail transit trip chain.Finally,this paper introduces the process of the travel chain model in detail,which lays the foundation for the fifth chapter.(4)Taking the example of Huiquan Square Station in Qingdao City to verify the general applicability of the model.First of all,the Huiquan Plaza site to carry out the questionnaire for the site of the case analysis to provide theoretical and data support.According to the travel chain model and the process of solving the model,the travel chain of Huiquan Plaza site is calculated and the sharing rate of each chain is obtained.Using the sharing rate of each travel chain of the site and the card data of the incoming and outgoing passengers to obtain the number of each row chain in the incoming and outgoing station,that is,the traffic volume selected for each trip chain.According to the site of the inbound and outbound rail traffic chain traffic,access to the site around the convergence facilities passenger flow.Finally,according to the site walk,bus and bicycle convergence facilities passenger flow,for their convergence facilities planning to provide guidance.