Research On Simulation Of The Construction Duration Based On Set Pair Analysis

The project duration is affected by many uncertain factors in the actual construction process,it makes difficult to accurately predict the project duration,because of the universality of duration delay and quality,cost,schedule harmonious control,the control of duration becomes more important.the paper proposes a method of combining set pair analysis and network planning technology based on the previous research,the influence degree of factor on the construction period is expressed in the form of interval number,and the uncertainty coefficient is expressed according to the degree of influence,the uncertainty of duration and the influence factors are expressed in the form of nonlinear,which makes the expression of the period extended from 2D to 3D,relational model of set pair analysis is established between duration and factors to research changing of duration under the influence of uncertain factors.First,the process duration,network planning technology,construction delay and relevant contents of the set pair analysis are described,the paper proposes a method of combining set pair analysis and network planning technology to research uncertainty of duration.Secondly,on the basis of the classification of the factors affecting the duration of the construction project,the interval analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is introduced to calculate the weight of factor and the influence degree of the uncertain factors on the construction period is quantified,which lays the foundation for the next research.Then,the set pair analysis theory and the connection number are introduced,and the duration of the process is represented in the form of multiple connection numbers;the introduction of factor weight makes the degree of influence be further refined into each duration expression,and establish the Monte Carlo simulation model based on set pair analysis,it changes the Monte Carlo simulation of process duration as random variable,ultimately get the completion probability of each route,and analysis the critical path of change and the uncertainties of duration.Finally,the Xiyuntai project is analyzed using the theoretical model established in this paper,the critical path of the project network plan and the completion probability of each route are calculated,the change process of the critical path is analyzed combined with the three-dimensional graph of each route,the project duration is predicted and controlled,ensured the project is completed on time.The case study shows that the model established in this paper is feasible and effective,and can be applied to other engineering fields to study the uncertainty of the construction period.