Research And Practice On Railway Construction Duration And Cost Simulation

Tranditional railway construction projects usually calculate project cost using quotas. Although the quota system is developing and being perfected step by step in the process of continuous exploring and reviewing, the tranditional statical method to calculate railway construction project cost with quotas does not adapt to the need of the rapid growth of our country’s railway industry any more, because our economy is growing fast and problems spring up in the process of formulating the quotas, for example, the cycle of formulating the quotas is too long and the quotas is lack of systematicness. Therefore, it is necessary to explore and find a new way to calculate the cost of railway project.This paper improves the Scheduling Method by combining Monte Carlo Method to simulate the project cost and total construction duration of a project case. According to statistical analysis based on the field investigation, it confirmed the probability distributions and its associated parameters of each procedure’s duration and resource requirements such as human, material and plant. Large samples of every procedure’s duration and resource requirements can be simulated with the Triple Estimate Method of Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Monte Carlo Simulation Method, and approach the total time and cost of the project under probability by collecting and analyzing the probability distributions and its associated parameters that the total time and resource consuming obeyed, with the Critical Path Method(CPM). The whole construction process will be visualized by the building information model of the project which is created by appending resource requirements and time factor to the3-dimensional (3D) model that is built with Building Information Modeling (BIM) theory and Alternativa3D technology. Based on the simulation results of every procedure’s duration and resource requirements, the Network Planning Diagram and Gantt Chart can be drawn with Flex and ActionScript language. Furthermore, with the Network Planning Diagram at the core, the BIM model can coordinate with the simulation result of the total time and cost of the project to show the condition of resource requirements and progressing in any time.