Research On Forecast Method Of Energy Planning Target For Transport Airlines

In recent years,with the rapid development of China’s civil aviation industry,the fuel consumption has notable increase.The pressure of international carbon reduction becomes more and more heavier.It has great scientific significance and practical value to accurately predict the energy consumption of the industry.In addition,predicted energy consumption data can be used to calculate whether the various types of energy consumption and the carbon emissions of transport airlines meet the requirements of the state issued targets,and it also can provide theoretical support for the energy saving and emission reduction of the transport airlines.Combined with the 13 th Five-Year Plan of the energy saving and emission reduction project about the civil aviation authority and the 13 th Five-Year Plan of the energy-saving emission reduction project about an transportation airline,the prediction method of energy planning target has been studied.It predicts the fuel consumption from different perspectives,main including:1、With a detailed investigation on the present situation of energy consumption and analysis on the energy consumption structure of the transportation airline,the total energy consumption index is put forward to be used as the index of energy utilization;2、Aiming at the characteristics of nonlinear and non-stationary of the historical data about fuel consumption,the methods of improved energy elasticity coefficient and support vector regression are selected to directly predict the fuel consumption of the transportation airline;3、Aiming at the uncertain factors in the forecasting process,the fuel consumption is decomposed into two factors: fuel efficiency and transportation turnover.The two factors are predicted separately by using scenario hypothesis,grey prediction and regression analysis.According to the relationship between fuel efficiency,transport turnover and fuel consumption,the estimated value of the fuel consumption target is obtained indirectly;4、Combined with the results of direct and indirect prediction,the reasonable target value of energy planning is given.At the same time,differently prediction results can be cross checked with each other and verify the reasonable of the prediction results.