Study Of Safety Assessment Of Sector Based On Probability

With the rapid development of civil aviation in China,air traffic flow is increasing dramatically.In response to the status quo and meeting demand,it's necessary to optimize and adjust current sectors,make planning of sectors.Safety assessment of sectors planning is of great importance in air traffic operation.Therefore,this paper focuses on safety assessment of sectors,main works as follows:1.By way of analyzing geometric configuration of route,aimed at parallel,cross-route,based on realistic assumption,relying on longitudinal/lateral/vertical and horizontal/vertical separation minima,considering relative displacement between two aircrafts and position error,conflict probability model is set up.2.A sensitivity analysis explores the impact of relative displacement,position error and separation minima on conflict probability.The analysis of the example verifies that conflict probability model is feasible and the result of sensitivity analysis is correct.3.Based on technical specification in air traffic control,severity of conflict risk is defined,and combining conflict probability model,conflict risk model is established.4.Select cuboid protection zone and ellipsoid protection zone,based on preceding models,the conflict frequency model,the average conflict intensity model and the average conflict probability model of sector are established,and used for evaluate safety of sectors.5.Aimed at given air traffic flow and sector,based on established safety assessment models of sectors,an example verifies that the models are precise and effective.Planning and evaluating sector is the important part of sector management,conflict risk model and safety assessment models of sectors are universally applicable,and would guide sector plan and safe operation.