Research On Evaluation Method Of Sector Conflict Risk

With the rapid development of civil aviation transport industry and the rapid increase of air traffic flow, the airspace resources can not meet the rapid growth of traffic demand. The flight conflict phenomenon is growing and the conflict risk of the sector is becoming bigger and bigger. Therefore, it has become a new hotspot to quantify the conflict risk of the sector for air traffic controllers.In this paper, we take the process of conflict as the research object, and first summarize the research and results about the conflict modeling and conflict detection made by domestic and foreign professors and clearly state the research idea that "take the conflict process as the research object, and start calculating the conflict risk between the two aircrafts from the microscopic point, and then calculate the conflict risk of the all aircrafts within the sector".This paper establishes conflict detection method and conflict classification method which are based on safety interval and apply them into the conflict probability calculation. Firstly this paper takes the microscopic conflict process as research object and calculates the conflict probability between aircrafts in accordance with the Gaussian distribution. Secondly, use the conflict duration and distance between aircrafts to define the conflict severity and then define the product of conflict probability and conflict severity as the conflict risk between two aircrafts. Finally take the two aircrafts which have actually conflict as example to calculate the conflict risk and render the conflict curve.On the basis of the calculation method of conflict risk between two aircrafts,propose the calculation method of conflict risk of the sector from the microscopic point. In this method the conflict risk of the sector is obtained by calculating the local conflict risk.We calculate the different time period's conflict risk of this sector taking Xiamen01 sector as example, and plot the conflict risk curve. Then analyze the relationship between the number of aircraft and the conflict risk of the sector. The numericalexample shows that the method quantifies the conflict risk of the sector and provides effective support for ensuring the safety flight and improving air traffic flow.