Research Of Middle And Low Voltage Distribution Network Programming In Jiangyin Town Fuqing City

In recent years,Jiangyin Town of Fuqing city has grown rapidly in economic development.But there are several problems in the middle and low voltage distribution network,such as weak local configuration and insufficient power supply.The development of Jiangyin Town is greatly affected by these problems.In this article,it takes the "13th Five-Year" planning of middle and low voltage distribution network in Jiangyin Town as the research object.A complete planning is well designed by investigation and analysis of power grid,load forecasting and distribution network planning.(1)The social economic development and the current situation of the power grid in Jiangyin Town are analyzed,the weakness and problems existed in the middle and low voltage distribution network of Jiangyin Town will be determined through the analysis above.A variety of load forecasting methods such as comprehensive growth rate forecasting,production value per unit consumption method and comprehensive electricity consumption index per capita method,are applied in this article to analyze and predict the overall power consumption of Jiangyin Town.And then the grey prediction method will be heavily used to predict the maximum load in Jiangyin Town.(2)Larger errors may occurred when the initial data is a series of poor smoothness.In order to solve this problem,the grey prediction method will be improved in this article by using the moving average method to correct the initial data,and using the unary linear regression model to correct the residuals.By comparing the prediction results of the maximum load data of Jiangyin Town in the past ten years,it shows that the improved grey forecasting method is more accurate than traditional ones,then theimproved grey forecasting method will be used to forecast the power lord in the “13th Five-Year” of Jiangyin Town.(3)In order to improve the overall economic benefits of transformation scheme of transformer district,a new method of transformer region reforming based on the whole life cycle cost of transformer is presented.After considering the influence of the external power supply reliability and the heavy load of the transformer on the cycle cost,we can assess the whole life cycle cost of the transformer,and then the urgent coefficient is put forward as the basis of transformer region reforming.The effectiveness of the method is proved by an example.And then this method will be applied to the planning.(4)According to the basic principles of distribution network planning and reforming,and aiming at the problems existing in the middle and low voltage distribution network in Jiangyin Town,the planning scheme of the construction and transformation of the middle and low voltage distribution network in Jiangyin Town is designed.After the implementation of this plan,planning results show that a good improvement has been made on distribution network index.The reliability of power supply may increase from 99.83% in 2015 to about 99.95% in 2020,the comprehensive line loss rate for 10 kV and below may decrease from 3.56% to 3.45%,the integrated voltage qualification rate may increase from 99.85% to 99.95%,the average distribution capacity may increase from 2.08 kVA/ households to 3.86 kVA/households.