Low Carbon Economy Generation Expansion Planning Incorporating With Efficiency Power Plant Based On Credibility Theory

With the increasing of the low carbon emission requirements of the government,as the largest carbon emissions,the Ministry of Electric Power is being reformed,which added low carbon technology and pay attention to the construction of wind power,photovoltaic and other new energy unit to achieve low carbon emission reduction targets.However,limited by lack of expansion funds and insufficient output of the new energy unit,the ministry of Electric Power can not realize targets by increasing new unit.Efficiency power plant is the innovation mode of demand side management.It will not only solve the increasingly serious environmental problems,but also save energy and achieve good economic benefits.Moreover,there are many uncertainties in electric power system such as load forecasting uncertainty and output uncertainty of efficiency power plant,which set a higher request to generation expansion planning.Therefore,this paper studies the problem of generation expansion planning,the main work is as follows:Firstly,in order to lay theoretical foundation of low carbon economy generation expansion planning which efficiency power plant and the uncertainty are considered,meanwhile,typical and modern generation expansion planning models are discussed.Low carbon generation expansion planning models are discussed.Integrated resource planning models are discussed.The methods to tackle planning problem with uncertain factors are discussed.Secondly,a new low carbon power planning model including efficiency power plant is put forward where the objective based on units investment costs,efficiency power plant construction costs,operating costs and Carbon trading costs are established.Using the discrete bacterial colony chemotaxis algorithm(Discrete Bacterial Colony Chemotaxis,DBCC)optimization,the optimization solution of the established model is performed,and two generation expansion planning models are compared.Under two conditions,namely the different amount of carbon dioxide emissions and the different limit of expected energy not supplied,the sensitivity analyses are carried out.The simulation results verify the validity of the model and algorithm.Finally,A fuzzy chance constrained reactive power optimization model including efficiency power plant based on credibility is established,the uncertainty of the load forecasting value and the output of efficiency power plant are considered.Then the fuzzy chance constrains is turned into their clear equivalent forms.An algorithm based on DBCC is used to solve the problem,Three models include the typical model,the model with efficiency power,the model with efficiency power adding uncertainty are compared.Sensitivity analysis are made under the condition of the different confidence levels.The simulation results verify the validity of the model and algorithm.