Research On Daily Gas Load And Mid-term Gas Load Forcasting In Eastern Areas Of Jinan

Natural gas is an important part of urban energy,according to the international and domestic energy consumption trend forecast,natural gas will be faster than other traditional fossil fuels to realize consumption growth in 15 to 20 years,widely applied in the residents' life,industrial production and heating and cooling,and other fields.Especially the requirement of environmental protection is increasing,natural gas has become an important alternative energy coal fuel.With the rapid development of natural gas application,some cities especially in northern part because of its high demand of heating in winter to form the inhomogeneity of load fluctuation.How to accurately predict gas short-term load change and medium-term load demand growth,so as to take effective measures to ensure the security of the distribution system,optimization of pipe network system construction and operation,has become the city gas enterprise focus to consider the needs from the strategic level.Gas load forecast at home and abroad at first,this paper introduces the important progress in research work,according to the gas characteristic s of jinan east,considering the number of users,load change trend,regional climate characteristics,the influence of atmospheric pollution control requirements,etc,analyzed the jinan east short-term gas load characteristic,the selection of exponential smoothing prediction theory and method as the research foundation,set up the daily load forecasting model based on exponential smoothing,emphatically studied the selection of smoothing constant,determined 0.45 as the region of the smoothing constant which is suitbale eastern part of jinan.Verified by a large number of historical data,the choice of the smoothing constant and prediction model predicted results have reached the expected goal.In East of jinan gas users scale,the gas consumption quota and non-uniform coefficient is studied to determine,on the basis of the medium-term gas load forecast,has carried on the comparative analysis with the existing pipeline gas supply capacity,puts forward the corresponding measures and Suggestions for distribution system optimization.According to the important time window,priorities,in a planned way to promote measures of implementation,in order to improve the efficiency of the distribution system as a whole,improve the ability of pipeline gas supply.