The Evaluation And Control On The Risk Of Railway Transportation Of Dangerous Goods

In recent years,Chinese railway transportation of dangerous goods is about 3 tons,accounting for 10%of the total railway freight.With the development of petroleum and chemical enterprises,new dangerous goods has been created and the new name of dangerous goods appear constantly.What' s more,production scale is increasing which shows an up trend.It is expected that by 2020,the railway transportation of dangerous goods every year can reach at about 6 tons,and the number of daily loading can reach at about more than 35000.There are some dangerous goods which rely on railway transportation,such as large quantities of crude oil,refined oil,gas and acid base.This is the main category in the railway transportation.Of course,there are other chemicals,such as benzene and so on.Because of the unique characteristics of dangerous goods and dangerous goods railway transportation accidents,it can make people,money and material suffered huge losses,so that our government and enterprise should pay attention to it.This paper,makes railway transportation of dangerous goods as the research object.At first,it shows the research about dangerous goods railway transportation of domestic and overseas from risk identification,risk assessment,risk control three aspects;through the actual development of Chinese dangerous goods railway transportation,the paper uses 5M theory,accident causal linkage theory,the formation mechanism to analysis dangerous goods railway transportation accident.Secondly,based on the theories above,and a large number of documents,the physical and chemical properties of dangerous goods and the risk factors in the transportation process are considered comprehensively,the initial index system has been constructed.Thirdly,some experts has been invited to give score and the analytic hierarchy process and the radius of the domain has been used to further screen and optimize the initial index system.In this way,the index system of the final risk assessment index system of dangerous goods railway transportation is determined.Next,in order to evaluate the risk of railway transportation of dangerous goods,based on the relevant knowledge,the Bayesian network structure is constructed according to the index system of the railway transportation risk assessment.Then,using the data collected by the survey to evaluate this process and determine the prior probability and conditional probability of each node.We can also use the Bayesian network to analysis forward reasoning,backward reasoning and sensitivity analysis.Finally,the countermeasures and suggestions to reduce the risk of railway transportation of dangerous goods are put forward from five perspective,such as people,facilities,environment,management and goods.The innovation of this paper is that there are few study about the railway transportation of dangerous goods as the starting point and the object of study,analyze and discus the risk of railway transportation of dangerous goods comprehensively and systematically.This point meet the needs of the development of the railway transportation industry,which has a very strong practical significance.With the support of theory,this paper uses the methods,such as the literature reading and questionnaire survey,to collect data and uses the analytic hierarchy process and the radius of the field to optimize the index system,and construct the index system of risk evaluation of railway transportation risk,which is the difficult point of this paper and it is the other innovation as well.In addition,the theory and method of Bayesian networks are first used in the risk assessment of railway transportation of dangerous goods.