Research On Risk Management Of PPP In Urban Rail Transit

With the sustained and rapid development of urbanization in China,more and more people gathered to the city.Many central cities supporting the construction speed can not keep up with the pace of population growth,leading to "urban disease" frequent.Urban rail transit is a powerful tool to solve the current urban development problems with green,capacity,convenient and quick advantages.But it is facing the bottlenecks for lacking of funds and management experience.Therefore,the introduction of social capital in the field of urban rail transit is the most effective way to break through its development bottleneck.Due to the complex structure,many participants,longer duration of the urban rail transit PPP project,the project potential risk factors are more complex.It is influenced by the internal characteristics of the project,such as large scale of investment in urban rail transit projects and strong project public welfare,and has a great dependence on the external environment such as macro policy,legal environment and financial market.In order to ensure the urban implementation of urban rail transit PPP project,to promote the development of PPP mode in urban rail transit,it is necessary to carry out systematic and comprehensive risk management research on urban rail transit PPP project.Firstly,based on the study of the economic attributes and operational characteristics of urban rail transit projects,and analyzes the characteristics of PPP model and the internal and external application conditions in the field of infrastructure,this paper discusses the applicability and research focus of PPP mode in urban rail transit projects.At the same time,it expounds the meaning and process of project risk management.And further laid the theoretical foundation for the writing of the paper.Secondly,based on the current research results,and combined with the project case analysis,it identifies the preliminary list of PPP project risk in urban rail transit.Then through the Delphi and risk matrix screening,filtering the risk,and identify a refined and comprehensive list to ensure the scientific and effective management of risk management.Then the risks are classified according to the risk source,and the risk assessment index system of urban rail transit PPP project is constructed.Thirdly,using the index scale to improve the analytic hierarchy process to improve the efficiency of index weighting.And constructs two semantic evaluation information to integrate the risk assessment level and the information reliability into the evaluationsystem,and make effective use of the expert evaluation information.At the same time,considering the overall decision-making rationality of the expert group,the expert information will be combined to reduce the subjective deviation of individual experts on the impact of the results.Evidence Reasoning Algorithm is introduced to evaluate information synthesis,properly handle the uncertainties and conflicts of evaluation information disturbance of assessment results.It enhances the objectivity,scientificity and feasibility of the risk assessment of PPP project in rail transit.Based on the analysis of the risk sharing principle and operation flow of PPP project in urban rail transit,this paper constructs the framework of risk sharing process and further studies the sharing proportion of risk sharing in the process framework.Taking the maximization of the overall efficiency of the project as the fundamental principle,taking into account the individual rationality and risk preference of the government departments and the private sector,the model of risk sharing proportion determination based on stochastic cooperative game theory and Shapley value is constructed.At the same time,the model is solved and the optimal proportion of government and private sector sharing risk is shared.It provides effective theoretical support for project risk sharing work.Finally,this paper analysis the Qingdao Rail Transit Line 13 project,and assesses the risk of the project comprehensively,and gives the risk-sharing recommendations and specific measures.It validates the scientific and feasibility of a complete set of risk management theory and method of risk identification,assessment,sharing and response in this paper.And helps the project participants to better manage the project risk and make the project successful.It is shown that this study has a good theoretical and practical significance to promote the application and development of PPP mode in urban rail transit.