Research On The Risk Management Of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project

With the continuous improvement of Chinese economic level,the speed of urbanization is gradually accelerating,the rapid growth of urban population,many urban traffic congestion phenomenon is increasingly serious,the traditional public transport has been difficult to meet the traffic needs of urban residents,urban rail transit with its efficient,convenient,punctual and other advantages has become an important magic weapon to alleviate traffic congestion and other urban problems.However,due to the inherent characteristics of urban rail transit projects,such as large construction difficulty,large amount of investment and long construction period,a large amount of capital support is needed in the actual construction process.If only relying on financial funds,it will not be able to make up for the huge funding gap of urban rail transit construction in major cities in China.In this context,social capital is introduced into the field of urban rail transit,It can not only alleviate the urban traffic congestion,but also dilute the financial pressure of the government.However,at present,Chinese urban rail transit PPP project operation process is still lack of experience,involving many risks in all stages of the life cycle,scientific and effective risk management system has become the key to promote the success of urban rail transit PPP project.Therefore,based on the whole life cycle,it is necessary to carry out risk management research from the perspective of stakeholders of urban rail transit PPP project.First,starting from the whole life cycle of PPP project,this paper has combed the research results of domestic and foreign scholars on the risk identification of urban rail transit PPP project,combined with the frequency survey method,sorted out the preliminary risk list;Combined with the relevant government documents,the paper revised the corresponding risk list,and interviewed the project experts,so as to constructed the final risk list for specific projects.The author classified the risk factors in the final risk list according to the risk sources,and established a more systematic and comprehensive risk evaluation index system of urban rail transit project in the whole life cycle under PPP mode.Secondly,throughed the introduction and comparison of risk assessment methods,this paper used C-OWA operator to scientifically weight the risk assessment indicators,which reasonably weakened the influence of personal subjective factors when experts scored,and well met the principle of fairness;This paper established a risk assessment model based on matter-element extension comprehensive evaluation method,studied things from qualitative and quantitative perspectives and solved the contradiction among them,which made the risk assessment of urban rail transit PPP project more scientific,objective and reasonable and practical.Then,the author introduced the principle of risk sharing,and constructd the sharing model of urban rail transit PPP project based on the theory of cooperative game.Firstly,the satisfaction degree of the project risk was obtained by subtracting the cost from the income that may be obtained by taking the risk;Secondly,in order to calculate the share proportion of shared risk between the public and private parties,the Shapley value method was used to preliminarily share the risk from the perspective of marginal contribution;Finally,AHP method was used to calculate the weight of the factors affecting the risk sharing,and the preliminary sharing results were adjusted in order to obtain a more equitable share ratio.Finally,this paper introduced a complete set of risk management model into Qingdao Metro Line 8,carried out a scientific and reasonable assessment of the risk situation of the project,calculated the optimal risk sharing proportion,and gave the response measures of each key risk from the government,social capital and public and private sides.It verified the applicability and scientificity of the risk management system constructed in this paper.At the same time,it was beneficial for all participants of Qingdao Metro Line 8 PPP project to comprehensively and deeply understand the project risk,and carried out targeted management,so as to promote the smooth progress of the project.