Research On Security Verification Of The Medium Long-term Generation Schedule And The Quantization Of Direct-purchasing For Large Consumers

In the operation mode of electric power market,dispatch and operation in power grid will be based on the transaction result in market.The pursuit of maximization of economic benefits is the factor which market trading will always give priority to,but safety is the key to running the system in the most economical state.At the same time,the dynamic behavior of power system is becoming more and more complex,which results in that the operating point is getting closer and closer to the safe and stable boundary.This series of problems all show that research on security verification of the medium and long-term generation schedule and the quantization of direct-purchasing for large consumers is imperative.The main research content and results of this thesis are as follows:Firstly,in the study of the fundamental theory of security verification of the medium and long-term generation schedule and the quantization of direct-purchasing for large consumers,a mid-long term power load forecasting method based on multivariable time series inversion self-memory model is proposed.This method is based on main factors that influence the changes of the electrical load.Its purpose is to conduct the dynamic equation inversion of the changing process,and to realize the forecasting of the power load by combining with the self-memory model.The experiments show that the method is feasible for mid-long term power load forecasting,which laid the data foundation for the work of security verification.At the same time,a method to judge whether the power generation plan is reasonable is proposed by analysis of transaction type.This method analyzes the variation trend of power generation capacity of power generation plant in historical period,which is taken as a standard for making a qualitative analysis of power generation plan during check period,to achieve a goal that the rationality of power generation plan is judged,and the whole process of security verification is optimized.In addition,based on thermal limit of tie line,this paper put forward a calculation method of the limit of transmitted energy,and the value can meet the demand of security verification of the medium long-term generation schedule and the quantization of direct-purchasing for large consumers.Next,the construction and application of security verification model are studied as follows:1)based on dynamic topology of the power grid,this paper puts forward a method to simplify grid topology,which decomposes the circular distribution into string distribution,and basic computational model is used to calculate the transmitted energy.This method solves the difficulty in calculating the transmitted energy in complex network structure.2)A method for the quantization of direct-purchasing for large consumers is proposed,which restrict the proportion of direct-purchasing for large consumers to make it participate in the model of security corrections.This method realizes the purpose of quantization of direct-purchasing for large consumers,and the whole process of security verification is refined.3)The model is applied to X power grid,and the results show that the model is practical and feasible.At last,based on theoretical research,using the modern modeling and artificial intelligence technology,the software system of security verification of the medium long-term generation schedule and the quantization of direct-purchasing for large consumers is developed.The system is simple and practical,and it can meet the basic requirements of power dispatching department under new situations.The full article carries on the research and application of security verification of the medium long-term generation schedule and the quantization of direct-purchasing for large consumers.The train of thought and the results can provide guidance for the practical work of power dispatching department.