Application Of A Combination Model Based On Equal-dimension And New-information In Saturated Power Demand Forecasting

Since The Power Industry is the pillar of the national economy,and its development is closely related with the development of society and economy.At present,Our country is in the middle and late stage of industrialization,When the sociey and economy has developed to a certain extent,the growth of power demand will slow down due to urban development orientation,resource condition,energy consumption structure,skill improment,policies and regulations.And it would gradually tend to the state of saturation.Saturated load is the load scale when the power demand is in the state of saturation.As an important indicator of grid medium and long term planning,the saturated load conducive to grasp the overall trend of future grid development.Therefore,the accurate forecasting of the load scale appears particularly important in the planning of urban grid.Guiding the work of the current stage through the medium and long term planning of the power grid,effectively reducing the redundant investment in power grid construction,improving energy efficiency,which can promote the common development of power grid construction and social economy.This thesis analyzes the features of saturated load at home and abroad,which aims to provide an effective method for forecasting saturated load.The main research content is as follows:At first,through analyzing the economy and power of developed countries and developed regions,the thesis summarizes the law and relationship between the society,economy and power development,and studies the division theory of power demand development stage.Secondly,the basic concept of saturated load is introduced,the characteristics of society and economy at the stage of saturated load are excavated,the saturation time judgement index set is induced,and the saturated load forecasting technique is summaried,the difficulties in forecasting is analyzed,the further studies in the thesis are discussed.Later,multi-dimensional model and Verhulst model are improved by adopting the technique of equal-dimension and new-information.Multi-dimensional model bases on influencing factors modeling,which can reflect the inherent factors of power demand.Verhulst model is mainly applied to the S type sequence with saturation state,which can well reflect the external law of power development.Combined with the advantages of both,a combination model based on technique of equal-dimension and new-information is proposed.At last,take Shanghai city as an example to analyze and demonstrate.This thesis analyzes the state of power demand in the background of society and economy situation of the region,studies the saturation time judgement index set one by one,and obtains the saturation time point of the region.In addition,the multi-dimentional model and Verhulst model based on equal-dimension and new-information as single model,to find the corresponding optimal dimension of interval,constructs a combination model whose coefficients are determined by variation coefficient method.Comparing and analyzing the results shows the proposed model is scientific and effective.