Demand Analysis And Fleet Planning Of Coal Shipping In China

At present,as China is in the stage of economic transformation,the structures of economy and energy is changing.This will profoundly impact the coal market.The 13th five-year plan has made it clear that we should build an ecological civilization and promote the construction of a green low-carbon cycle development industry system.Andby 2020,the concentration of coal industry should be further increased and the coal base should be concentrated.It is also a major challenge to the coal market.The coal market pattern has begun to change considerably.Therefore,this paper has analyzed the current situation of coal market from a qualitative perspective and the demand and studied capacity supply of coal transportation in China by quantitative analysis.Firstly,the domestic coal market demand is analyzed from the demand structure,the distribution of consumption area and the influence factors of demandwhile the market supply analyzed from the aspects of production status and supply influencing factors.Based on the results,this paper summarizes the current situation of coal market development in China and analyzes the existing problems in the market.Secondly,in allusion to the present situation of coal shipping market,the influence factors of domestic coal shipping market in Chinaare analyzed.Thenthe present situation of China's coal shipping market is analyzed from the following four aspects:the situation of China's main coal source country,China's coal imports main courses,the situation of China's coal shipping fleet,and the situation of coal port in China.Thirdly,according to the historical data,this paper has forecast China's coal imports during the 13th five-year plan period with various factors affecting the coal market,adopting grey prediction method.Then,the present situation of China's coal transportation market is analyzed,and the main routes of coal import are summarized.Through linear programming,combining coal import forecast results,the fleet planning model constructed based on the minimum operating cost has obtained the development scale and structure of China's coal-shipping fleet.At the end,combining this research result,suggestions for development have been put forward to promote the development of China's coal-shipping market.