Safety Status Evaluation And Prediction Based On Grid For High-speed Railway Track

The high-speed railway track state determines whether the train is safe or not directly.To strengthen the evaluation and prediction of railway track state can help managers track grasp the deterioration state of the equipment in real time,so as to arrange the maintenance plan reasonably,realizing the transformation from the traditional "cycle repair" to "state repair",which is of great significance to ensure the safe and reliable operation and the rational distribution of the resources of the high speed railway.With the development of railway informatization,the establishment of state management information system for high-speed railway track equipment by means of information technology also provides technical support for managers to discover hidden dangers on line timely.On the basis of introducing the influence factors of the safety state of the high speed railway and the characteristics of the state deterioration of the rail equipment in high speed railway.The main research ideas of this paper are as follows:on the basis of grid management theory,the track is divided into 200m grid units.In view of the safety status assessment and prediction of track grid,the main research has been carried out in the following aspects:First,the evaluation model of railway track safety state are established.In this paper,the state variables of high speed railway track safety are selected from two aspects of functional performance and reliability.Then a method of extracting feature variables based on principal component analysis is proposed aimed at solve the problem of information redundancy among state variables,and then by using cluster analysis and TOPSIS method,which take the value of state characteristic variable as input and the value of safety state of railway track is output.So,the quantitative results of the safety state of the high speed railway and the result of the state grade division are obtained.Taking Baoji-Lanzhou high-speed railway as an example,and the case study shows that the TOPSIS method can objectively quantify the track status of equipment,managers can clearly grasp the equipment state grid across the board,so as to provide the basis for establishing reasonable maintenance plan.Secondly,a prediction model for track safety status of high speed railway is established.Based on the state evaluation results,a track safety state prediction model based on ARMA model and multi-stage Weibull model is established,and the modeling process of the two models is described in detail,and the example verification is carried out.The results show that multistage Weibull model can accurately track the deterioration trend of rail equipment status,and the prediction accuracy can meet the requirement of high speed railway track safety prediction.Finally,the research result is applying to the project named "Information System of Digital Management of the Integration of Construction and Maintenance Baoji-Lanzhou High-Speed Railway".Using data warehouse technology,the system is implemented and the track grid safety status of Baoji-Lanzhou high-speed railway ranging from K1305 to K1640 are calculated,and the visualization of high-speed railway track equipment is realize based on the B/S architecture,and the system has been preliminarily applied to the Lanzhou Railway Bureau.