Evaluating The Risk Of Unmanned Aircraft Operation

In recent years,the civil Unmanned Aircraft Vehicle(UAV)industry has developed a blowout type,especially the rapid increase in the number of small and lignt UAV,which accounts for the vast majority of the civilian UAV.However,due to the imperfect supervision system of UAV in our country and the difficulty of UAV management and control at present,the safety accidents caused by UAV illegal flight occur frequently,and some UAVs even affect the normal operation of transport aviation aircraft.According to statistics,China now has about 20,000 UAV in the ‘black fly'.Therefore,it is very necessary to evaluate the risk of UAV.It is hoped that the research can play a positive role in reducing the operational risk of UAV.In this paper,the operational risk of UAV is evaluated by using the method of probability evaluation,which is used in quantitative risk assessment method.Firstly,the classification of UAV in China is optimized,and the safety evaluation index of China's UAV industry is determined,and the corresponding safety target is determined.Then,the probability model of UAV crash is established.The model is composed of various causative models: UAV and transport aircraft crash probability model,UAV and UAV crash probability model and UAV own failure probability model.The probabilistic models of UAV collision with transport aircraft and UAV with UAV crash are built by gas model,and the UAV failure probability model is established by the reliability model of series system.Then,a crash consequence severity model of UAV operation is established,and the consequence severity of different UAV crash in different regions of China is analyzed.Risk Assessment model of UAV operation based on crash probability model of UAV and severity crash model of consequence of UAV operation.Evaluation of the operational risk of different types of UAV,and the safety level of UAV industry in China is very low by comparing with the pre-determined target of UAV industry.The way to improve safety is to reduce the risk of UAVs colliding with transport aircraft and the failure rate of UAVsthemselves,and some reasonable suggestions for the safety management of UAV in China based on the risk reduction method.Finally,the risk assessment model of UAV is applied to analyze the limits of UAV airfields in China,and the optimization scheme is given.