Research On Optimization Of High Speed Railway Line Scheme Based On Prospect Theory

Recent years,with the rapid improvement of high-speed train,social economy has been getting more and more developed,which resulted in a reform in railway and passenger delivery.The most important step in building high-speed railways is railway line selection which means to reorder and evaluate the alternatives,eventually to select the most valuable one as the recommendation.Due to a variety of selective indexes,which often influences each other and not very accurate at some degrees,the result will be not very suitable.Meanwhile,with different characteristics and preferences of directors and the changes of outer conditions,the consequences will be waving.Therefore,this paper puts out that selecting routes of high-speed railway is a problem covering several targets of directors' mental features.It is more coincident with practical decision patterns of human.This paper choose the high-railway from Lao village to NanNing as the project instance.And then I build up four different methods of how to selecting a route.They are based on Prospect Theory,on Prospect Theory and TOPSIS's,on Prospect Theory and Grey Correlation and on Prospect Theory and improved TOPSIS Grey Correlation.At first,this paper introduces the background and meaning of the subject,and reviews the status quo of domestic and international railway line selection and Prospect Theory.And summarizes the research content and technical route of this article.Secondly,this paper briefly introduces the application of Expected Utility Theory and its application in railway line selection,and summarizes the content of Prospect Theory.Introducing the uncertainty of high-speed railway line selection,I study the applications of Prospect Theory to high-speed railway line selection.Thirdly,the principle and method for constructing the high-speed railway line plan index system are analyzed,and indicators are selected to introduce.The high-speed railway line plan index system applied in this paper is established,and the method of combination weighting of the analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy entropy weight method is used to seek index weights.Fourthly,considering that the Prospect Theory can characterize the psychological behavior of decision makers,the Prospect Theory is applied to the selection process of high-speed railway line schemes.A selection method for high-speed railway line schemes based on prospect theory is proposed,and the comprehensive prospect value of the line program is calculated.The comparison of the plans makes the results more reasonable and reliable.The comprehensive outlook value of the route plan depends on the value of the foreground and the weight of the indicator.The determination of the weight is based on the combination weighting method.This requires the experts to have rich experience in related fields and the accuracy of the indicator data itself,otherwise the result will weaken this effect,TOPSIS method and Grey Correlation method were introduced respectively.The optimization model of high-speed railway line scheme based on prospect theory and TOPSIS method was established,and the optimization model of high-speed railway line scheme based on Prospect Theory and Grey Correlation method was established.Combined with the advantages and disadvantages of the TOPSIS method and the Grey Relational method,a high-speed railway route optimization model based on the prospect theory and the improved TOPSIS Grey Correlation method is established,making the calculation result more reliable and stable.Finally,this paper turns it reasonable and reliable through cases and calculating,and comparing with the decision-making unit's recommended alternatives.