Research On Decision Of High Speed Railway Speed Target Value Based On Prospect Theory

The selection of the speed target value of the high-speed railway will have a series of effects on the design standards of the line infrastructure construction,locomotive vehicle configuration,driving and signal control technology,passenger flow,etc.Therefore,the speed target value is the basis for the determination of other technical indicators of the high-speed railway.Studying how to make prudent decisions on a scientific and reasonable speed target value has very important practical value and social significance.Due to the large number of speed target decision-making indicators,and often mutual influence,the decision information is incompletely expressed to a certain extent,and with the change of the decision-maker’s psychological characteristics and external environment,the decision result will fluctuate to a certain extent,and will also appear in the decision-making process The decision makers have a certain degree of personal preference for specific attributes resulting in individual expectations,and traditional speed target value decision research does not consider the uncertainty of decision information and the influence of decision makers’ own psychological characteristics on decision results.Therefore,this paper builds a high-speed railway speed target value decision-making optimization model based on prospect theory,which is closer to the actual decision-making mode of the decision maker.The main research results are as follows:(1)The applicability of prospect theory in speed target value decision of high-speed railway.In-depth study of the basic principles and contents of the prospect theory,analysis of the relationship between the uncertainty of the high-speed railway speed target value decision factors and the decision maker ’s own limited rationality,the prospect theory in the high-speed railway speed target value decision research Explore the applicability.(2)Analysis of influencing factors of high-speed railway speed target value decision-making,decision-making index system construction and determination of index weights.Fully integrate the previous research results on the influencing factors of the high-speed railway speed target value,and do a systematic analysis from both qualitative and quantitative perspectives,respectively from four angles of technical difficulty,economic indicators,the impact of transportation organization and social significance,Use the target decomposition method to construct a decision index system that can fully reflect the influencing factors of the high-speed railway speed target value;in determining the weight: use the analytic hierarchy process and the interval number distance method to determine the subjective and objective weights,and give full play to their complementary advantages;As far as possible to ensure the fairness of the combined weights,the principle of minimum information identification is used to merge the subjective and objective weights.(3)Research on the construction of decision-making optimization model of high-speed railway speed target value based on prospect theory.Starting from being close to the actual decision-making behavior of the decision-maker,and trying to fit the psychological behavior of the decision-maker,the optimal model of the high-speed railway speed target value decision-making based on the prospect theory is constructed.(4)Research on the revision of the optimal model for the decision-making of high-speed railway speed target value based on prospect theory.In order to weaken the impact of the inaccuracy of index weights on decision results,VIKOR method and prospect theory are introduced to build a high-speed railway speed target value decision optimization model based on prospect theory and VIKOR,in order to improve the stability and reliability of decision results.At the same time,considering that different decision makers may be affected by factors such as personal emotions,experience,personality,etc.in the actual decision-making process,different reference points may be selected.The selection of reference points is discussed,and finally the positive target,negative target,The expected value is used as a reference point for decision research.In order to share the risk of improper selection of each decision maker under a single reference point,the prospect value of the fusion of the target attributes of the speed target value under multiple reference points was discussed,and a decision optimization model for the speed target value under multiple reference points was constructed,which further improved The scientificity and rationality of decision-making results.Finally,taking the speed target value decision of the new Chongqing-Guizhou high-speed railway as an example,the scientificity and reliability of the model are verified.