Study On The Characteristics Of Risk Propensity Of Airline Pilots

With the continuous growth of air transportation capacity,decreasing the occurrences of unsafe events and flight accidents as well as reducing the risk of aircraft operation has been the goals pursued constantly by civil aviation industry.As the last line of defense for civil aviation safety,airline pilots' operant behaviors have a direct impact on flight safety.Besides,under the same flight conditions,the risk risk cognitive variables of pilots' personality traits and social cognitive factors will have an impact on flight safety.Therefore,it has important practical significance in the forward shift of safety juncture and improvement of safety operation of aircraft to study the effect of risk psychological variables on pilots' risky operation behaviors,extract feature of pilots' risk propensity from the perspective of airline pilots' risk cognitions.Through the introduction of accident proneness theory,the hypothesis that "risky pilots" exist in the group of airline pilots was proposed,then statistics and conventional tests of the distribution of pilots' exceedance times and exceedance rates,including pilots driving two types of aircraft,were conducted,and the average exceedance deviations of pilots in different level of exceedance rate as well as pilots' exceedance rates in different periods were contrasted and analysed respectively.The results indicate that exceedance events tend to a certain part of pilots.Besides,the average exceedance deviation of pilots with high exceedance rates is significantly higher than pilots' with low exceedance rates,and there is a significant correlation among exceedance rates in different periods,that is,the "risky pilots" do exist in the group of airline transport pilots.Based on the analysis of literature,a risk psychological total scale of airline pilots was designed,including airline pilots' risk tolerance scale,airline pilots' risk perception scale and airline pilots' hazardous attitude scale,and the language revision was made to the flying scenes of part of scale(airline pilots' risk tolerance scale).The combination of two modes of on-line and off-line measurement was used to measure the risk propensity variables of the pilots in two airlines in China.ANOVA and correlation analysis were conducted to study the effect of risk cognitive variables on airline pilots' exceedance behaviors.Cluster analysis methods was adopted to divide the pilots into three groups: group A(low risk tolerance,high risk perception and medium-low hazardous attitude)and group B(medium-low risk tolerance,medium-high risk perception and medium hazardous attitude)and group C(medium-high risk tolerance,medium-low risk perception and medium risk attitude).MANOVA was used to analyse the difference of four key parameters during the landing,the research results show that the hazardous attitude has a significant positive effect on the severe exceedance behaviors of pilots.Compared with the pilots with low risk tolerance,high risk perception and medium hazardous attitude,those with medium-higher risk tolerance,medium-lower risk perception and medium hazardous attitude would land with relatively larger vertical acceleration and larger pitch angle.Besides,they would have significantly shorter touchdown distance.With the existing standard of Flight Operations Quality Assurance,using the deviation among four flight parameters of the Ground Speed Touchdown,Pitch Angle Touchdown,Vertical Acceleration Touchdown and Touchdown Distance as the indexes for landing risk operation propensity evaluation,entropy weight method and normal cloud theory were applied to construct the model of landing risk operation propensity evaluation based on normal cloud of flight data.A case study show that the model could achieve the landing risk operation propensity evaluation of airline pilots by comparing the normal cloud similarity between the evaluated object and the landing operation risk level,and the application of the method provides a basis for airline to make safety management decisions.