Flight Risk Control Research Based On Operational Data Analysis

With the continuous increase in the number of flights in China,the safety of flight operations has become an increasingly prominent issue.The first element of flight operation is safety.At present,domestic airlines continue to strengthen the risk control of flight operations.Under normal circumstances,airlines’ control of flight operation risks is often limited to the identification,analysis and control of a single risk.The interaction between different risk factors is not considered,and civil aviation accidents are not the result of a single risk factor,but are often caused by the combined action of multiple risk factors.Therefore,studying the law of action between risk factors and adopting an effective way to block the risk coupling process can provide a new method for the realization of flight operation risk control.The phenomenon of interaction and influence between different risk factors is called risk coupling.First of all,this paper is based on the "Guidelines for the Implementation of Air Carrier Operational Control Risk Management System" issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China in 2015(AC-FS-121-2015-125)and the "Guidelines for the Implementation of Air Carrier Aircraft Tracking and Monitoring" issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China(AC-FS-121-2015-125)in 2016.Based on AC-FS-121-2016-127),the risk source is screened and the flight operation risk coupling index body is established accordingly.After that,the risk coupling principle is analyzed for the causes of civil aviation accidents or unsafe incidents,the types and processes of flight operation risk coupling are studied.Secondly,by comparing and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of various coupling models and the scope of application,the coupling analysis model suitable for analyzing flight operation risks is screened out,and the NK model is improved by using the analytic hierarchy process and entropy method to make up for the sample of the NK model.The data requirements are too high,and based on the improved NK model,the civil aviation operation data from 2015 to 2019 is analyzed,and the risk coupling degree under various risk coupling situations is obtained,and then the entropy method is used to deal with airlines.The operational data including ADS-B,ACARS and MORCS systems are brought into the NK model for analysis again,and the flight operation risk coupling results derived from the above two sets of data are compared and analyzed.Finally,on the basis of the above research,the commonly used flight operation risk control methods are analyzed,and the principle of decoupling is analyzed from the perspective of risk coupling.According to three different decouplings: inertial decoupling,incentive decoupling,and elastic decoupling.The principle of coupling formulates risk control objectives based on the principle of decoupling,and then designs the decoupling management plan for flight operation risk,and designs the implementation strategy for coupling risk management,and realizes flight operation risk control by interfering or blocking the formation process of risk coupling.