Research On Causal Reasoning Method Of Domain Ontology Based On Bayesian Network

The causality of civil aviation emergency is an analysis of the correlation degree between event influencing factors and events.With the increase of the types of emergencies,the influencing factors become more and more complex,which makes it difficult to analyze the causal relationship of emergencies.The domain ontology of emergency management of civil aviation is only a description of the knowledge of emergencies and lack research on the causes and consequences of events.Therefore,based on the in-depth study of civil aviation emergencies,we introduce the Bayesian network and reasoning technology into the domain ontology.The main research contents are as follows:By analyzing two kinds of causality analysis methods(one is based on time series,the other graph theory),the structure of domain ontology and the Bayesian network,this paper proposes a causality analysis method for civil aviation emergencies based on Bayesian network and designs the overall framework of the method.Firstly,the transformation process of the ontology to Bayesian network is presented,and the transformation is completed through the custom transformation rules and Bayesian probability updating algorithm.Then based on the message delivery mechanism,the Bayesian network inference method based on message passing is studied.The process of solving the posteriori probability and obtaining the probability distribution among the nodes of network is given,and the causality of the nodes is further analyzed.The experimental results show that the causality analysis of civil aviation emergencies based on Bayesian network can effectively solve the probability distribution of civil aviation emergencies causality,and describes the impact level and cause of the event.The archived result can also better support for prevention of emergency in the field of civil aviation emergency management.