The Research On Vulnerability Of Agro-ecosystem Affected By Climate Change In Jiaozhou Bay Area

Climate change is complicated and diversity in China,not only time-space consistency in the large scale,but also heterogeneity in different times or regions.In addition to the increasing trend of extreme weather incidents are strongly influencing in the aspects of social and economic in coastal zones,which proved the coastal zones to be one of the popular research areas affected by the global climate change.China is an agricultural country and the research on the vulnerability agricultural ecosystem in coastal zones of China in the background of global warming and increasing extreme weather incidents that will bring not only the scientific foundation of social economic sustainable development in coastal zones but also the foundation of action of making strategies and measurements effectively adapted to Climate Change.Jiaozhou Bay is the typical representative of coastal in north China and the middle-latitude marine climate.is a coastal zone oceanic climate the strongest mid-latitude regions.Since China's reform and opening up,the Jiaozhou Bay coastal area economic developed rapidly.However,the proportion of "three agriculture" in this area is still relatively large,and the climate change and extreme weather incidents,especially the drought disaster ecological system has become one of the greatest challenges and threatens in Jiaozhou Bay area.This study selected the agricultural ecological system in the Jiaozhou Bay area as the research object.By comprehensively considered the interaction between the of natural ecological environment and human society,this study constructed the evaluation index system on the vulnerability of agricultural ecosystem towards Global Climate Change in the Jiaozhou Bay area from three aspects of expose degree,sensitivity and adaptability and evaluated the vulnerability of agricultural ecosystem towards Global Climate Change and gained a understanding of spatial and temporal variations on the vulnerability of agriculture ecosystem to provide reference for alleviating disadvantages that Climate Change caused on agricultural production and building feasible measurements to protect the healthy developments on social economics in coastal zones.In addition,this study selected 14 related indexes including the climate,agricultural production,economy,society,population and so on to build an evaluation index system on the vulnerability of agro-ecosystem towards climate change in the Jiaozhou Bay area.According to the social economic development trend and future development plan in the Jiaozhou Bay area,this study constructed the changes of society,economy,population and farmland in the future and combined with regional climate model to predict the future climate change.Natural Segmentation Method based on Arc-GIS platform was used to process data dimensionless and Analysis Hierarchy Process was adopted to determine the weight of each index.Eventually,Weighting Comprehensive Evaluation Method was used to evaluate the vulnerability of agro-ecosystem in the past(1981~2010)and future(2021~2050)30 years.It also analyzed the Spatial Distribution and Variation characteristics The following are the main results of this study:(1)In the past 3 decades,the exposure of agro-ecosystem towards climate changein the Jiaozhou Bay area represented high in the middle area and low in the each edge.The urban area of Qingdao City had the lowest sensitivity,while Pingdu City had the highest of that.The adaptability of Qingdao city is the strongest,while the weakest appeared in the Laixi City.The vulnerability showed high in northwestern and low in the southeast coastal area.The high value area of vulnerability appeared in the northwest boundary of Pingdu and the low value area located in the southwest area of Jiaonan,south of Qingdao,the east of Jimo.(2)The future spatial distribution of exposure will gradually reduce from the northeast to the southwest.The high value area will appear in the Laixi,and the low value area will locate in the Pingdu.The sensitivity will represent high in the northwest while low in the southeast coastal area.The highest value will appear in the Pingdu,Qingdao and Jiaonan will show the lowest value in the opposite.The highest value of the adaptability will appear in the Pingdu,while the lowest value of that will appear in the Jiaonan.The vulnerability will show high in the northeast and low in the southeast.The high value will located in the Laixi while the low value will show in the Qingdao,Jiaonan and the north area of Pingdu.(3)As influenced by the climate change,the exposure of Pingdu and Laixi will increase in the future.The sensitivity of the Jiaozhou Bay area will change little,while the adaptability will change a lot.The most affected factor on the exposure is the spatial distribution of water-temperature index.The change of net income of farmers is the main reason that the adaptability changes.The vulnerability of Laxi will increase in the future while that of Pingdu will reduce.(4)As influenced by the climate change,the Spatiotemporal Variation of the vulnerability of the agro-ecosystem was analyzed by Comparatively,which found that the most vulnerable area is the Laixi city and expect the government will concentrate on the development of agriculture,especially guaranteeing the irrigation water,improving the utilization efficiency of water resources and reducing the adverse effect of drought on the agro-ecosystem.