Spatial-temporal Characteristics Analysis And Risk Assessment Of Chilling Damage In Jilin Province Based On Risk Simulator

In China, Jilin province is one of the granaries, it is rich in resources. Researches show that Jilin province is frequent meteorological disasters. The low-temperature chilling injury is one of the main agricultural meteorological disasters. Pose a serious threat to agricultural sustainable development and food security of Jilin province. Since the 1950 s, chilling damages happen more than 700 times. Rice production is most serious, the average yield decreased by 34.5%. The second is the sorghum, the average yield decreased by 25.1%. In 1954,1957,1969, 1957 and 1976 happened particularly severe chilling damages, The yield reduction caused by more than 20% of heavy losses. In recent years, due to global warming, extreme weather events tend to be more frequent. Therefore, the increased temperature volatility in different regional. Crop the fragility of ecological environment deterioration has become increasingly worse. The frequency and degree of low temperature chilling injury is obviously raising trend. Agricultural production and food security is facing more and more severe challenges. Therefore, this paper is very necessary to study the low-temperature chilling injury of Jilin province.This study selects 25 sites of May -September temperature data from1953-2013 of Jilin province. Under monthly scale, Jilin province low-temperature chilling injury was studied. First of all, index of crop cold damage of the national weather service are selected. On the basis of the index, calculate the Jilin province 60 year's frequencies per month of low-temperature chilling injury. On the time scale, to do the Morlet wavelet analysis of May -September frequency, It is concluded that over the past 60 years in May -September cycle characteristics. Spatial scales, Use of the site's temperature data for spatial interpolation. According to this article's chilling damages meteorological index, select areas of low-temperature chilling injury, the spatial distribution of low-temperature chilling injury frequency. The second, Using Risk Simulator(?) 2012 software on all site's temperature data of Jilin province distribution fitting, probability distribution type of low-temperature chilling injury, Type and distribution analysis of the distribution, Calculating probability of low temperature chilling injury in the future. To establish risk model, In Jilin province and risk evaluation on the chilling damages occurring in the future.