| Restricted by climatic conditions,the traditional rice-growing northern boundary was at latitude 48 ° nearby of Heilongjiang Province.The north rice producing areas included Bei'an,Tieli,Nehe,Helen,Suileng and so on.In recent years,the traditional rice-growing northern boundary gradually moved to Heihe areas because of global warming.By the method of cumulative anomaly,linear trend and m-k test,this paper researches on the temperatures,precipitation,sunshine duration,?13? accumulated temperature etc.for the north rice producing areas of Heilongjiang Province(Bei'an,Tieli,Nehe,Helen,Suileng)and Heihe rice producing areas(Aihui,Sunwu,Xunke,Beian,Wudalianchi,Nenjiang)and talk about the climate change trend and temporal and spatial distribution characteristics in the rice producing areas under the condition of global climate.The main results are as follows:1.From1961 to 2008,the temperature rise speed of the north rice producing areas of Heilongjiang Province was 0.38 ? /10 yr and it was faster than the main rice producing whose speed is 0.3?/10yr;growing season temperature has increased 1.4? at 0.28 ? /10 yr rate of growth.Annual precipitation and growing season precipitation change trends of the whole rice producing areas and the north rice growing areas were basically the same,showing the decrease after the increase and then decrease.The growing season sunshine duration of north rice producing area was 1250 h,which was more than the main rice producing areas,the growing season average sunshine duration was 1200 h.2.Under the background of global warming,the average temperature of Heihe areas was 0.62? and it has increased 0.88? at a speed of 0.39?/ 10 a.Especially in the80s-90 s of the 20 th century,the rate of warming was up to 0.6?/10 yr.The growing season average temperature was 16.62? and it has increased 0.7?.The rate of warming was0.45? / 10 yr.3.From 1985 to 2014,the average accumulated temperature above 13? was 2222.3? in Heihe areas.The increasing rate was 84?/10 yr rate of growth.After the 21 st century,accumulated temperature has increased 112.5 ? than that of 30 years ago.The accumulated temperature of 83.3% guarantee rate was 2200 ?.1985-2014,initial day above 13? obvious advanced at the speed of 3.6d/10 yr.the last day above 10?delayed at the rate of 1.0d/10 yr.The number of the growing days has increased at a speed of4.6d/10 yr and the average value was 121 days.4.From 1985 to 2014,the average temperature of sterile type cool injury of rice wasbetween 11.6 to 17 ? during booting stage occurred widely and the low-temperature continued 3-8 days.The frequency of sterile type cool injury was reduced from northwest to southeast.Occurrence frequency and severity of the delayed cool injury was reducing with the time went on.In the north and middle,frequency of the delayed cool injury was more than in the south,east and west.5.From 1971 to 2014,accumulative sunshine duration was between 2214 and 2837 h in heihe areas and the average value of growing season sunshine duration was 1236h;both of them were decreased gradually as the time went on.The cumulative precipitation of Heihe areas was 362.3-712.5mm and the growing season average rainfall was 433.6mm;in the past 30 years,50% precipitation guaranteed rate was 85 mm and 80% guaranteed rate was70 mm.The limiting factors for north expansion strategy of paddy field in Heilongjiang province include temperature,accumulated temperature,growth period and so on.Through the meteorological data analysis,the results showed that rice cultivation conditions have improved under the background of climate warming.According to the climate warming condition,the rate of north expansion strategy of paddy field is estimated about 91.29km/10 yr.It will reach 49.1°N until 2030 and it can be widely promoted in the whole area until 2050.Selecting extremely early maturing varieties which only need about 2200 ?accumulated temperature and growth period is about 110-120 days.The harvest guarantee rate can reach 80%. |
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