Risk Aversion Based Interval Multistage Programming Approach For Agricultural Water Management Under Uncertainty

With the rapid development of social economy,the whole society is facing serious water shortage problem,which depends on the survival of water resources in irrigation area agriculture system is particularly serious.In this study,a risk aversion based interval multistage model(RAMS)method was proposed to tackling uncertainties in agricultural water resources planning systems.The RAMS method is promoting transform static stages into dynamic solutions based on an interactive algorithm and a vertex analysis approach.When the random events have happened,alternatives adjustable could be achieved by setting targets rightly and then according to the conditional value at risk of the targets in this situation make revised decisions to reduce the economic penalties.The application would be beneficial to Zhangweinan irrigation area,which is the typical agricultural regions where were long plagued by drought in China facing with serious water scarcity,and is suffering from groundwater table decline due to increasing agricultural water demand in recent years.At the same time,the decline in the low water level led to the need for more irrigation water for agriculture,which resulted in a vicious cycle.In this study,multistage and conditional value at risk(CVaR)integration were carried out to study irrigation risk in stages.The water requirement of crops are expressed by Penman formula.The results can help generate desired policies for irrigation water management with a maximized payoff and a smaller loss.