| Cotton is closely related to climate condition,the climate great changes have happened due to the differences between regional and interannual,and the yield and quality of cotton has a great impact.Based on the meteorological data of northern Xinjiang Planting area from 1961 to2015,the article writer has analysised the change characteristic of the sunlight duration,temperature and precipitation during within the last 55 years,applicated the methods of the climate tendency rate,accumulative anomaly,M-K trend analysis and mutation detection,based on the heat conditions change from 1981 to 2015,the suitability of cotton varieties has effected in suitable cotton planting area and subsuitable cotton planting area,meanwhile the writer has researched the correlation between climatic yield of cotton and meteorological factors.The main study results were as follows:(1)During 1961 ~ 2015,the agricultural climate resources increased in northern Xinjiang Planting area.The average temperature,average maximum temperature,average minimum temperature,precipitation,the sunlight duration and the climate tendency rate were 0.4?/10a?0.1?/10a?0.7?/10a?10.0 mm/10a?36.2h/10 a,the jump time respectively was1989,1997,1987,1987,2000.After the heat resources jumping,the largest heat increase in November,the largest precipitation resources increase in June,the largest light resources increase in March.(2)During 1981~2015,the overall heat trend increased in suitable and subsuitable cotton planting area,?10? accumulated temperature,the mean temperature of July,frost free period and ?20?accumulated temperature in subsuitable cotton planting area were more than suitable cotton planting area,but the mutation time was contrary.The climate indexex in subsuitable cotton planting area have reached the standards of suitable cotton planting area since 2000,the heat conditions in suitable cotton planting area were richer,so the suitability of cotton planting also changed.(3)In the latest 35 years,the average temperature in cotton growing period(from mid April to early October)has increased 0.9? and less 1.2?than the annual average temperature,the increase of heat was mainly concentrated in the early stage of cotton growth,the increase ofprecipitation is mainly in the middle and late stage of cotton growth,the hours of of sunshine was in the first half and the late of the early stage of cotton growth.(4)The climatic yield of cotton was positively correlated with the temperature of cotton growing season and it was negatively correlated with precipitation from April to October.The climatic yield of cotton was very significant negative with the precipitation in July,and was significant negative correlation with the precipitation in September,and was not obvious with sunshine hours.(5)The climatic yield of cotton are significantly correlated with the average temperature in early June,average maximum temperature,average minimum temperature and sunshine hours,the minimum temperature the the period in late July,and the maximum temperature of early August.Meanwhile the climatic yield of cotton are significantly correlated with average temperature in mid September,minimum temperature and maximum temperature in cotton wadding period.The climatic yield of cotton was extremely significant negative correlation with the precipitation of the middle of September.(6)The two climatic yield prediction models were established by the stepwise regression method according to the correlation between meteorological factors and climatic yield of cotton,and the fitting results were good.Above all analysis and research,the conclusions can help people to utilize reasonably of climate resources in the northern Xinjiang planting area,provide scientific basis to realize the targe of good quality and high yield of the cotton. |
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