Research On Meteorological Condition Of Se-rich Tea In Zi-Yang And It's Forecasting

It is necessary to study the relationship between the Climate characteristics,growth of tea,high quality,high yield to meteorological conditions,this for rational planning layout of agricultural products and Improve the quality and yield of tea has practical significance.In this paper,by using the data of soil,sunshine,temperature,precipitation,relative humidity and other meteorological elements in Ziyang meteorological station during 1994-2014,the climate and the quality of Ziyang selenium enriched tea have been studied.Ziyang tea ecological and climatic suitability have been divided,by using the 4 meteorological factor of annual average temperature,annual extreme minimum temperature,accumulated temperature which equal to or more than 10,annual precipitation as the suitable climate zonation index for Ziyang se rich tea,combined with the GIS spatial analysis and mapping functions,and by using the method of Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.Also several tea on the tea bud,spring tea production,such as a key growth period also made a preliminary division,so as to plan and to management production conveniently.Further more,meteorological disasters of Ziyang selenium rich tea were analyzed.At the end,a preliminary study for Ziyang selenium-rich tea picking period and yield forecast method.have been made.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The unique climate characteristics and selenium rich soil created by the geographical location of Ziyang can fine meets the requirements of Ziyang selenium-riched tea growth and quality,which with good industrial advantages.(2)Suitable altitude for planting Ziyang tea is below than 900 m sea level,but if the altitude is below than 500 meters there are appears high probability of high temperature and heat injury.So that is a limiting factor for the development of tea production in this area,therefore,the prevention of temperature and heat injury is the focus of this region.Sub optimum planting climate area is in the altitude 9001200 m,the average temperature in this area is the lowest in winter,also,chilling and low harm occurred some time in spring.therefore,the area should focus on protect from freezing injury.(3)Ziyang selenium-rich tea low temperature and freezing injury are mainly distributedin the 2-3 month in time,the spatial distribution is mainly at an altitude of 1000 meters above the mountain areas.No serious freezing injury would occurred below 500 m above altitude,the occurrence of moderate damage probability for 10 years in 1 case,mildly frost damage for 10 years in 7 case;500-1000 m altitude appeared the serious damage for 10 years in 1 case,moderate damage for 10 years in 2 case,mildly damage for 10 years in 7 case;serious freezing injury occurred probability for 10 years in 1 case at an altitude of above 1000 meters,moderate freezing injury for 10 years in 2 case,mildly freezing injury for 10 years in 9 case.Ziyang low temperature and freezing injury mainly occurred from December to March next year,due to caused the different types of weather by Spring tea low temperature and freezing injury,the spatial distribution from 500-1500 meters all have the possibility occurred,in each planting area.Ziyang High-temperature heat harm has occurred mainly in early July to mid August,1500 meters below have emerged,however its mainly distributed in the mountainous area of500-1000 meters.(4)The optimal subset regression model as Ziyang tea prediction picking period has the better forecast ability,the advantages lies in the reasonable use of principal component analysis method to screened the public forecast factors,the tea picking period and all the significant meteorological element was retained,the absolute relationship between the tea picking period and some meteorological element is avoided,forecast effect is better.(5)The Meteorological yield YW and annual sunshine hours,July 15 cm low temperature and other 5 factors,the correlation reached an extremely significant or significant level,the yield forecast for Ziyang selenium-rich tea is very significant forecast index.The territory of Ankang is rich agricultural production county mostly,there have many kinds of meteorological disasters,great harm.The results of this paper for figure out the climatic characteristics and change laws of the region,as the well-being for the agricultural services and disaster prevention and mitigation,for scientific and rational use of agricultural climate resources in Shannan Qinba Mountain Area and further optimize the industrial structure to provide meteorological science basis.