Research On Forecast And Early Warning Of Meteorological Disasters In Changsha

This paper analyzes the characteristics of major meteorological resources in Changsha from 1971 to 2015 for nearly 45 years,and analyzes the interannual variation characteristics of thermal resources,water resources,light resources and wind resources and crop growth period(4-10).Month)changes.The characteristics of meteorological disasters in Changsha area in the past 30 years were analyzed.A trend analysis was made on the total grain yield and yield per unit of the Changsha area in the past 45 years.The countermeasures for agricultural production under climate change in Changsha are put forward.The specific performance is as follows:1.The interannual variation of various factors of thermal resources in the past 45 years is generally on the rise.The annual average temperature,the annual extreme minimum temperature,the annual extreme maximum temperature,the April-October average temperature,the four season average temperature,and the accumulated temperature six thermal resource indicators in Changsha are all on the rise,with growth rates of 0.32?0.41?0.29?0.34?(the spring 0.40?the summer 0.13?the fall 0.52?the winter 0.003)?116.84?10a(d·?/10a).2.The interannual variation of various factors of water resources has shown an upward trend in the past 45 years.The inter-annual variation indicators of total water resources in Changsha,total humidity from April to October,and total snowfall were on the rise,with growth rates of 36.14,56.59,and 0.51 mm/10a(d/10a).3.The interannual variation of various factors of light resources showed an upward trend in the past 45 years.The interannual variation of various factors of wind resources showed a downward trend in the past 45 years.The total sunshine duration in Changsha area is increasing,with a growth rate of 0.05°h/10a;the annual average wind speed is decreasing,and the growth rate is-0.25m/(s·10a).The total frosting time showed a downward trend,which was negatively correlated with the temperature change,and the growth rate was-3.78d/10 a.4.In terms of time,the 1990 s was a time node.From the early 1970 s to the early 1990 s,the temperature was low and the total precipitation was less.After the late 1990 s,the temperature increased and the total precipitation increased.5.From 1982 to 2012,from the occurrence of heavy meteorological storms,droughts and hail in the Changsha area,the meteorological disasters in the past 30 years from 1983 to2012 showed an upward trend,which may be related to global warming and rising temperatures.Increased precipitation.Among them: the frequency of rainstorms and droughts continued to rise in 30 years;the frequency of hail changed little between 1983-1992 and1993-2002,and between 2003 and 2012 20 years is on the rise.This may be related to global warming,rising temperatures,and increased precipitation.6.The total grain output has shown an upward trend in the past 45 years.For the total grain yield and yield,this paper analyzes the interannual variation of total grain yield,rice,wheat,grain,potato,grain and soybean yield,and the total grain output shows an upward trend with a growth rate of 199820t/10 a,of which: rice,fold The output of grain and potato,miscellaneous grains and soybeans showed an upward trend with growth rates of 199820,169870,8791.8,19583 and 3672.2t/10 a.The yield of wheat showed a downward trend with a growth rate of-2093.9t/10 a.7.The impact of climate on total grain output has fluctuated in the past 45 years.The climatic output was negative from 1971 to 1981,the climatic factors were unfavorable to crops;the climatic yield was positive in 1982-2001,the climatic factors were favorable to crops;the climate production was negative in 2002-2004,and the climatic factors were unfavorable to crops;Climate production is positive and climatic factors are good for crops;from 2006 to 2015,climate production is negative and climatic factors are not good for crops.8.In the past 45 years,due to climate change,meteorological disasters have occurred frequently,and the production conditions of crops have undergone tremendous changes,which have brought about major impacts and inevitable losses on agricultural production and agricultural economy in Changsha,and buried hidden dangers that are difficult to ignore.This paper proposes a response strategy for agricultural production in Changsha.The first is to change the way of emissions and improve the climate.The second is to adjust the crop planting structure.The third is the introduction and introduction of new types of stress-resistant crops and planting equipment.The fourth is to pay attention to the prediction and early warning research of meteorological disasters,and improve the ability of agriculture in our province to respond to climate change.