Study On Analysis And Perdiction Of Maternal Mortality Rate,infant Mortality Rate And Child Mortality Rate Under Age 5

Objective: The objective was to describe the current situation of maternal and children health indicators and analyse the characteristics of trendency,including maternal mortality rate,infant mortality rate and the mortality rate of children who was under age 5.Mathematical models analysis was used to do test of goodness of fit analysis of the indicators of maternal and child health,in order to select the best fitting model for short-term forecasting,and providing suggestions for making decision scientifically in maternal and children health work.Methods: The original data used was the national maternal mortality rate during 1991 to 2014,as well as infant mortality rate and mortality rate of children who was under age 5.Descriptive analysis methods was used to describe the current situation of maternal and children health indicators and trend analysis.We select Grey GM(1,1),ARIMA,and linear regression model to analyse.During the analysis,SAS,SPSS and other software was used to do test of goodness of fit analysis for maternal and children health indicators,in order to calculate the optimal prediction equation.Besides MAE,RMSE and MAPE was used as the evaluation index.The method that combine “back on behalf of the fit” and “point estimation method for predicting” was used to compare the fitted model,and select the optimal model for forecasting short-term prediction of the three main indicators in maternal and child health.Results:(1)After many years' efforts,China's maternal mortality rate,infant mortality rate and mortality rate of children who was under age 5 have decreased significantly.Since 1991,the national maternal mortality rate decreased from 80/100,000 to 21.7/100,000,and at a speed of 2.5% per year declining.The population of death decreased from 12235 per year to 3294 per year,with the average reduction of 389 per year.The infant mortality rate decreased from 50.2‰ to 8.9‰,with a rate of 1.8% declining per year.The population of death dropped from 12235 per year to 112864 per year.The mortality rate of children who was under age 5 dropped from 61.0‰ to 11.7‰,with a rate of 2.1% declining per year.The population of death dropped from 932887 per year to 199593 per year.(2)The level of health care and management in maternal and child work increased step by step,the difference between urban and rural areas progressively disappeared.In the past five years,the top three causes of maternal mortality are obstetric hemorrhage,amniotic fluid embolism and pregnancy-induced hypertension.In rural areas,the problem of children was prominent.(3)According the characteristics of maternal and children health indicators,we select the best fitted model,maternal mortality and mortality rate of children who was under age 5 both used GM(1,1)model as predictive model;The infant mortality rate used the model of the combination of GM(1,1)model and ARIMA model as predictive model.Conclusion:(1)Between1991~2014 years,China's maternal mortality rate,infant mortality and mortality of children who was under five have got great achievements,In some years there is a rebound trend.The gap between urban and rural areas,we should pay more attention at children who was in rural areas and migrant children.(2)GM(1,1)model,ARIMA model and linear regression model all can be used to do test of goodness of fit of the maternal and children health indicators.In comparison,GM(1,1)model is opitimal,ARIMA model take the second place,linear regression model worst.(3)Maternal mortality rate,infant mortality rate and the mortality rate of children who was under age 5 in recent years will remain the tendency of declining.