Trend And Prediction Of Incidence Rate And Death Rate Of COPD From 1990 To 2019

Objective:Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019,describe the trends of age standardized incidence and mortality rates of COPD in the overall population,male population and female population in China from 1990 to 2019,and predicted the trends COPD in China(except Taiwan Province)from 2020 to 2022.Methods: In this study,trends in age-standardized incidence and death rate for the whole population,male population and female population of COPD in China from 1990 to 2019 were analysed using the Joinpoint Regression Modle to find the joinpoints and analyse the changes in each stage.The ARIMA and BP neural network models were used to predict the incidence rate and death rate of COPD in Chinese population,and the effects of the models were compared and evaluated.Results:1.From 1990 to 2019,the standardized incidence and death rate of COPD in the Chinese population showed a downward trend,with higher incidence rate in female than in male,and higher death rate in male than in female.2.Joinpoint regression showed that the age-standardized incidence rate of COPD decreased by an average of 1.24% per year in the whole population from 1990 to 2019.The average annual decline in the agestandardized death rate of the whole population was 4.32%,and the age-standardized death rate for female had fallen more repidly,by an average of 4.83% per year.3.The results of the ARIMA model predict that the age-standardized incidence rate and death rate of COPD will continue to decline in the population as a whole population,male population and female population from 2020 to 2022.In 2022,the incidence rate of COPD in Chinese population will be 219.75 per 100,000 and the death rate will be 30.72 per 100,000,and the incidence rate of male will be decreased to approximately191.83 per 100,000 and the death rate to 39.27 per 100,000.For females,the incidence rate is 255.39 per 100,000 and the death rate is 20.36 per 100,000.4.The BP network results showed that in 2022 the incidence rate of COPD in the whole population of Chinese is 217.40 per 100,000 and the death rate is 53.24 per 100,000.Male incidence rate of COPD is 195.23 per 100,000 and the death rate is 65.49 per 100,000.The incidence rate of COPD in women will decrease to 250.45 per 100,000 and the death rate will be 40.75 per 100,000.5.The effects of ARIMA model and BP neural network model was evaluated by comparing the difference between the actual and predicted value of age-standardied incidence rate and death rate in COPD,MAE,MAPE and RMSE.MAE,MAPE and RMSE values of BP neural network test set were smaller than those of ARIMA model.Conclusions: 1.From 1990 to 2019,the age-standardized incidence rate and death rate of COPD in the whole population,male population and female population showed a significant decline trend in China.2.From 1990 to 2019,the decrease trend of COPD incidence rate and death rate in the whole population and among different gender groups was divided into stages,with different APC values for the different stages.3.The predicted results of the ARIMA model show that,except for a small increase in the incidence rate of the female population,the incidence rate of COPD in the whole population,the male population,and the mortality rate of the whole population,male population and female population will continue to decrease from 2020 to 2022 in China.BP neural network model predicted that the incidence rate of the whole population and female population will first increase and then decrease,and the death rate of the whole population and male population will have a small increase,while the incidence rate of the male population and the daeth rate of the famale population will still continue to decrease.4.In this study,by comparing the error,MAPE,MAE and RMSEbetween the actual and predicted values of incidence and mortality in the whole population,male population and female population,it is found that the prediction results of the BP neural network model are closer to the real values.