Behavior Of The Independents In Taiwan

According to the study of electoral political theory in the United States,"political party recognition" is considered as a dominant variable in the "Funnel of Causality"of voter behavior.From the perspective of political party recognition,the independents are groups that do not have a clear support of political parties.The voter structure presents a,"bell-shaped" distribution from the bimodal distribution of the intersection,that is,the number of the independents increases with the decline of the party's identity.Taiwan's voter structure data shows that the base of blue and green is 36%and 30%respectively,while the independents who are neither blue nor green account for roughly 30%.Thus this group has become the key to winning the election,and turn out to be the main focus for the parties.The results of the nine-in-one election can be said to be the outpost of the 2016 election.The party rotation took place when the results of the Taiwanese general election were announced in January 2016.Tsai Ing-wen,who won 689 votes with a relative vote of 56.1%,won the election.Judging from the absolute votes,Ms.Tsai won a share of 36.7%of the total number of Taiwanese voters,while Eric Chu won a total share of 20.3%and the Democratic Progressive Party(DPP)only won the support of 8.4%of the voters.The election had a less than 70%voter rate,which means more than one-third of the eligible voters did not vote.Many studies suggest that political rotation of the Taiwan political parties is due to the change in voting attitudes among independents.One of the most important reasons is the silence of the Kuomintang supporters,which indicates that the supporters of the Kuomintang had become the independents.The main questions are shown as follow.What are the common characters of Taiwan independents?What are the basic characteristics of political party supporters and theindependents,and whether there are significant differences in social and political attitudes between the two?What are the short-term factors that will affect the decision of independents in Taiwan?Moreover,a number of women candidates became popular among the world around 2015,and therefore whether there is a certain relationship between this trend and the success of Tsai Ing-wen is compelling.In addition,the young voters in the " sunflower movement" has produced a significant force to different parties.Based on Ronald Inglehart,entering the post-industrial era,the proportion of post-materialism among young groups is higher than other age groups.With the post-materialist relies a lot less on the political party,is the behavior of the young voters in Taiwan conforming to the post-materialist values and whether their behavior sync with the independents,who rely less on political parties?Based on the TEDS 2016 poll data,this paper selects the basic information of the voters such as age,sex,education level,provincial nationality,religious belief and geographical area,as well as political interest,political knowledge,political sense of consciousness,ethnic identity,unified stand,"president" satisfaction evaluation of political performance,candidate emotional thermometer and other political attitude variables.The following study will conduct "independent sample T test" and "double variable cross analysis" on both the political party supporters and independents,and establish a logical regression analysis model on different types of voters vote choice model to address following questions:1.The social characteristics and types of the independents in Taiwan;2.The political attitude of the independents in Taiwan;3.Whether the change of attitude of the independents is the main reason for the third party rotation in Taiwan;4.The relationship between the behavior of young voters and the independents;5.The relationship between the behavior of sex voters and the independents;...