Election Rallies Influence On Voter Behavior

Elections are the core of democracy. The legitimacy of the government is based on regular elections of main officials. As election results determine the continuity or replacement of governments, all factors affecting the voting behavior of the voters are important information in the analyses of academic of political science. To understand and capture the factors of "voting behavior" is a crucial topic in practical elections and political study.Taiwan implemented the election system for local officials in 1950 and the first general election for the top government executive was launched in 1996. Since its pioneer by an independent candidate in Hsinchu district election of 1985, election campaigns have developed into the core activities in Taiwan' s elections in the past decade. These campaigns affect the environment as well as the result of the election. It is necessary to examine on the far-reaching impact on election practice and the discussion of political theories from the "New Political Factor" of "Election Campaign".This study explores four core issues: 1. the "Environmental Factors" which gave rise to election campaign in Taiwan; 2. the "Effects" on voting behavior of Taiwan voters from the campaigns. 3. the "Extend of Influence" on voting behavior by the campaigns; and, 4. the effect on "Democratic Political Development of Taiwan" from the campaign. The target of the study is focused on the election campaigns for the President of Taiwan. The study analyzes the topic by establishing theories for correlation analysis on variables. First of all, major hypotheses are proposed on the four core issues. After that, these hypotheses are being tested through researched information and the statistics from telephone questionnaires conducted on the Taiwan voters. The telephone interviews were carried out from 26 August to 1 September 2008 based on random sampling. A total of 1068 questionnaires have been completed and they are all effective questionnaires. The sampling error is±3%, based on 95% confident level.The major discoveries of the study are: 1. The rise and the change of form of the election campaigns in Taiwan is highly related with the time background, which includes difference in resources of the competing parties, and the politics, laws, mass media, economic development, voters' education level, and the cross-strait relationship at that time; 2. Election campaigns affect the voters through face-to-face "First Level Communication" at the venue, and "Second Level Communication" carried out by media reports and the supporters' social interaction; Campaign delivers "Internal Agglomeration and External Expansion" effect; 3. There are 9.08% of the surveyed voters who admitted that their voting behavior is affected by election campaigns, and 5.81% said they might be affected by election campaigns. The actual effect of campaigns on votes received by the competing parties is around±2% - 5%; 4. Although 20.6% of the voters believed campaigns will affect the election but it is the least important factors when compared with the other six factors affecting voting behavior. Election campaigns are more powerful on the psychological horizon of the voters than the actual voting horizon. 5. Election campaigns are not able to change the vote for those voters who have already had the "Right Candidate in Mind" but the campaigns will motivate these voters, which account for 31.5% of the total voters, to exercise their voting right. Those voters who are "Without the Right Candidate or Have Not Decided to Vote" account for 21.22% of the total voters, and campaigns will motivate 5.36% to exercise their voting rights; 6. There are slightly more voters for the Pan-Green Party who believe that election campaigns have an effect on their voting behavior than the voters for the Pan-Blue Party; 7. There are 9.7% of undecided voters who believe that the campaigns have an effect on their voting behavior. According to this study, there are 69.29% of undecided voters in Taiwan. 8. Election campaigns affect the voting behavior as well as the public's attitude. They have both potential negative and positive encouraging effects on the development of the public' s attitude toward politics in Taiwan.