Age Structure Of Population And The Demand Of Real Estate:Spatial-temporal Evolution And Prediction

China cancelled the welfare housing allocation system and realized the commercialization of housing in 1998.In the process of rapid development of real estate industry,problems like the contradiction of the supply and demand of real estate,precipitous rise of housing prices,incoordination with social economy development arise frequently.Currently,our fertility policy has experienced a large test.It has been from "planned parenthood" to "Comprehensive Two-child".The implementation of the new policy will lead to a big change of our population age structure and will give a direct impact on the real house demand.Therefore,given the above situation,the article uses stereotypes and quantitative research methods and studies on the effects of age structure of population on social demand for real estate and predicts the future changes in the demand for real estate due to new birth policy,which will be of great importance in promoting the healthy development of China's housing market?realizing " Home Ownership Scheme "?ensuing social stability.Firstly,the article analyzes theoretically on the relevant concepts of this study and reviews the impact of population age structure on the demand for real estate studies at home and abroad on the summary of the literature.On that basis,it analyzes the effect of population age structure on the demand for real estate theoretically.In the empirical study part,the article firstly explores the influence of age structure of populations on real estate on the whole by constructing dynamic panel data model of GMM based on historical data.Secondly,it introduces factors of provinces and geographical and explores the spatial difference of the effects of age structure of population on the demand for real estate by Geographically Weighted Regression with the combination of economic geographic study.It analyzes the evolution of effect over time through the contrast of different years.In addition,based on the current "a comprehensive two-child" new birth policy,it predicts effect of the change of population age structure on housing demand as the result of adjusting birth policy in the next 30 years.Through theoretical analysis and empirical study,it has found that currently the rising of children's dependency ratio in China has a certain inhibitory effect on social housing demand on the whole.Under the background of age currently,the increasing of elderly dependency ratio has a stimulating effect on housing demand.But this effect is weak.Secondly,the effect of population age structure on housing demand shows obvious regional differences.It performances that the effect of age structure on housing demand in south is stronger than it in north and the effect gradually weakens over time.But the elderly dependency ratio effect is strengthened gradually from south to north.Thirdly,Under the policy of "a comprehensive two-child",juvenile population will increase in the short-term and the social ageing trend will become increasingly serious,China's population age structure will result in downward pressure on demand for social housing in the future.Finally,according to the study,the article puts forward related policy suggestions like optimizing the structure of housing supply?guiding reasonable housing demand?creating innovative real estate products and early deploying related policies ect.