Research On The Impact Of Population Structure And Industrial Upgrade On Real Estate Price

Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has developed rapidly,and the level of urbanization has continued to rise.The consequent increase in housing prices has continued.The average selling price of commercial housing in China rose from RMB 1997/sqm in 1998 to RMB 6,793/sqm in 2015,which was a rise of 340.2% in 17 years.In 2016,the prices of real estate in large and medium-sized cities have exploded,and the rapid rise in real estate prices has caused residents to panic.The government has introduced real estate price control policies to regulate the real estate market.Although real estate prices have increased,It has slowed down,but house prices are still rising slightly and different cities show differences.Scholars with different house price fluctuations have done some research from different perspectives.Early scholars mainly gave explanations of house price changes from a qualitative point of view.They believe that the acceleration of urbanization and the increase in the number of people increase the demand for housing.As a result,house prices have risen.There are also scholars analyzing the microscopic reasons for housing price rise from a quantitative perspective.For example,data on house price changes are given in terms of urbanization,income gaps,land systems,interest rates,population structure,industrial shifts,and upgrades.Explanation.In the literature on the impact of demographic structure and industrial transfer upgrades on real estate price changes,most scholars only examine the impact of their unilateral population structure on real estate prices,or examine their impact on real estate prices only from the perspective of industrial transfer and upgrading.,without considering that there may be some interaction between population structure and industrial upgrading,that is,there may be an intermediary effect between population structure,industrialupgrading,and real estate prices;the demographic structure may affect real estate price changes by affecting industrial upgrading.Industrial upgrading affects the changes in real estate prices by affecting the population structure.This article first reviews the literature on the impact of demographic structure on real estate prices and industrial upgrading on real estate prices at home and abroad.From the theoretical perspective,it analyzes the impact of population structure on real estate prices and the impact of industrial upgrading on real estate prices,and then establishes an intermediary effect model.To test whether there is an intermediary effect between population structure,industrial upgrading and real estate prices.The survey found that the population structure is an intermediary variable between industrial upgrading and real estate prices.Industrial upgrading is not a mediating variable between population structure and real estate prices.That is,industrial upgrading affects the price of real estate by acting on the population structure,while population structure influences real estate prices.The impact is independent.Therefore,a panel data model was established to integrate demographic structure,industrial upgrading,and real estate prices into a regression model to analyze the combined effects of population structure and industrial upgrading on real estate prices.Finally,based on the differences in regional economic development in China,35 large-scale national The middle cities are divided into the eastern,central and western regions,and their influence on real estate prices in different regions has been studied.The research conclusions show that population structure is the intermediary variable between industrial upgrading and real estate prices.Industrial upgrading is not a mediating variable between population structure and real estate prices.Industrial upgrading influences real estate prices through its role in population structure,and population structure affects real estate prices.The impact is independent,so the demographic structure plays an important role in real estate prices.Industrial upgrading promotes the rise of real estate prices.Its promotion effect on real estate prices presents a regional difference.Industrial upgrading has a greater role in promoting housing prices in the eastern region than in the western region,while it has a greater role in promoting housing prices in the western region than in the central region.The higher the level of industrial upgrading,the greater its contribution to housing prices.The coefficient of old age will restrain the rise of housing prices from the national level;when analyzed by sub-regions,it will suppress the rise ofhousing prices in the eastern region,and will promote the increase of house prices in the central and western regions.The fertility rate will restrain the rise in house prices from the national level;in sub-regional analysis,it will suppress the rise of real estate prices in the eastern and central regions,but it will promote the increase of real estate prices in the western region,but it is not significant in the western region.The labor force from the national level will promote the rise of real estate prices.When the sub-regional analysis is conducted,it will promote the real estate prices in the eastern and central regions,and will have a downward effect on the real estate prices in the western region.When the education structure is analyzed from the national level or analyzed in different regions,the impact on the real estate prices in the eastern,central and western regions is not significant.Finally,according to the research conclusions,the thesis puts forward the corresponding real estate policy recommendations.