Study On The Valuation Of Patent Pledged Financing From The Perspective Of Risk Quantification

The 21^st century is an era of knowledge-based economy featuring the information economy,cyber economy and digital economy.The competition of comprehensive national strength with economic and technological innovation as the main content has become the core of competition in all countries in the world.Since the 18^th CPC National Congress proposed that China should implement the strategy of promoting development through innovation,in its 19^th major reports,it has repeatedly stressed that science and technology are the primary motivators for development and is the strategic support for building a modern economic system.With the further deepending of China's emphasis on science and technology innovation,many small and medium-sized high-tech enterprises have arisen and developed under the background of knowledge economy.Because the high investment of funds is the obvious characteristics of high-tech enterprises in its development process,it is often more needs and shortage of funds than the traditional business.Considering that most small and medium-sized high-tech enterprises are not listed and the lack of physical assets,the financing by pledging its own patent has become the main channel for solving its funding problem.However,due to the fact that the business of financing by pledging patent is in an initial stage of development,market conditions,legal systems and assessment techniques are not mature enough leading to the risk of financing by pledge patent is difficult to be accurately measured.Besides,there is controversy over the pledge value evaluation of patent rights.So banks and other financial institutions have taken a negative attitude toward the patent pledge loan business in order to evade risks and the development of business of financing by pledging patent has struggled.In view of the problems existing in pledge financing of small and medium-sized high-tech enterprises,in this paper,we take the risk quantification as the perspective.First,we conduct a deep analysis of the risks in all aspects of the pledge financing process from the perspective of the participants.Then a comprehensive evaluation model is constructed to quantify the risks.Because of the subjectivity of experts'scoring in the traditional comprehensive evaluation model,the comprehensive evaluation model was improved by introducing Latin hypercube sampling?LHS?and Spearman rank correlation analysis to reduce the impact of expert scoring subjectivity on the quantification of risks.Finally,we can obtain a more scientific risk quantification result by reasonably adjusting the weights of risk indicators.The ultimate goal of quantitative analysis of risks of financing by pledging patent is to obtain more accurate pledge value of patent.Therefore,in this paper,we build the valuation model of pledged financing of patents on the basis of obtaining the risk quantification coefficient.However,when using the valuation model to calculate the pledge value of the patent right,it is necessary to have both the risk quantification coefficient of financing by pledging patent and the market value of the patent right,both of which are indispensable.When using the income approach to evaluate the market value of patent rights,taking into account the uncertainty of the cash flow and discount rate in the traditional income approach,Monte Carlo simulation is used to improve the traditional income approach.Then the risk quantification result and the improved income method evaluation result are brought into the valuation model at the same time to obtain the pledge value of the patent right.At last,the case of enterprise is introduced to carry out the empirical analysis.By comparing the result of patent value evaluation using traditional income method with the result of evaluation using the method improved by Monte Carlo simulation,it is concluded that the evaluation result after the improvement by Monte Carlo simulation is more objective and can more accurately reflect the true pledge value of the patent.