A Research Of The Calculation Of Chinese Environmental Trade Balance And Its Affecting Factors

In recent years, China's environmental quality is increasingly serious deterioration, most cities suffer fog and haze weather, the pollution of rivers and lakes and residents drinking water safety problems occur frequently. The ecological environment system has been unable, through automatic cycle to recover. Meanwhile, according to the data from World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the long-term average temperature of reference period from 1961 to 1990 was 14 ?, while the average global temperature of land and ocean surface in 2014 is higher than the average of 0.57 ?. And the future of temperatures will higher, the trend of global warming will continue. With the voice of protect the world environment and reduce pollution emissions is growing, our country will play an increasingly important role in the economic system world,and as a developing country, China must initiative to take up the task of energy conservation, which makes our country into the dilemma between "environmental quality improvement" and "rapid economic progress". Environmental deterioration has risen to the main problem facing China's development. Therefore, how to reduce emissions quickly and complete the task of reducing emissions has become an urgent problem. Wyckoff and Roop (1994) pointed out that along with merchandise trade flows is implicit in the international transfer of contaminated streams. A country in order to reach their goal of reducing pollution emissions should reduce domestic production and increase imports. As a trade surplus countries, what kind of foreign trade impact on the China's environmental pollution?Based on multi-regional input-output tables and environmental accounts that contains 41 major economies from 1995 to 2009 provided by WIOD, firstly, this paper rebuild the calculation model of environmental trade balance and the pollution terms of trade, which fully consider the differences between countries emissions intensity and intermediate input-output technical coefficients. From two dimensions of the amount level and various pollutants, we analyze the influence of foreign trade on the China's environmental pollution from 1995 to 2009. We also use the structural decomposition analysis to analyze its influencing factors. Secondly, considering interregional transfer of trade and the reverse flow of hidden pollutants, this paper further analyze the influence of foreign trade on China's environmental pollution from the country level. Finally, we could offer the corresponding policy recommendation according to the empirical analysis. And in view of the existing research, we put forward prospects for further research. The empirical results are as follows:From the total perspective, during the period from 1995 to 2009, the positive impact of international trade on China's environment is far lower than the negative impact, with the trade surplus is also the China's environmental trade deficit, and the amount of the deficit is rise. Meanwhile, during the period from 1995 to 2009, the CO2, NH3, NOx and SOx terms of trade of Chinese are greater than one, namely China's unit export implied pollution emissions far more than the unit import implied pollution emissions, "Pollution Haven Hypothesis" is established. However, the pollution terms of trade as a whole show a trend toward improvement. Declining in China's emissions intensity is a major factor inhibiting environmental trade deficit and the pollution terms of trade improve. The expansion of import scale also inhibit the environmental trade deficit increase, while the expansion of export scale is driven the environment trade deficit increased.From the point of view of national level, during the period from 1995 to 2009, the amount of CO2, NH3, NOx and SOx emissions embodied in China's exports are mainly flow to the EU and the US, and the proportion of this amount accounting for the emissions embodied in China's total export is contaminants 2/5 or more, while the amount of CO2, NOx and SOx emissions embodied in China's imports mainly from South Korea and Taiwan of East Asian economies, NH3 mainly from the United States; the view of net transfer, with the exception of Taiwan, the balances of the CO2, NH3, NOx and SOx emissions embodied in Chinese trade with the economies studied are negative, and this tendency is increasing. The amount of environmental trade deficit between China and the EU and US accounting for Chinese environmental trade deficit is contaminants 1/2 or more. The expansion of imports scale and the decrease of China's domestic emissions intensity are the main factors to promote environmental trade deficit between China and these economies. But the expansion of exports scale, the deterioration of Chinese domestic intermediate inputs structure and the decline of pollution emissions intensity of imported regional are driven its increase; the view of pollution terms of bilateral trade,1995-2009, the pollution terms of bilateral trade between China and European countries and East Asian economies are greater than 1, means that China has become a "Pollution Haven" for these countries. But the pollution terms of bilateral trade shows improvement trend. It is mainly due to the effects of Chinese domestic emissions intensity, however, and the decline of pollution emissions intensity of import source of regional, and the contamination of China's domestic intermediate inputs structure leading to its increases.