The Research On Risk Early Warning Of Regional Financial Revenue And Expenditure

In this thesis we analysis the influence of local financial revenue and expenditure risk index, construct the fiscal risk early warning index system conforms to the situation of Jiangsu province, establish financial revenue and expenditure risk early warning model, through the analysis on the fiscal risk and early warning of Jiangsu Province, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions, in this way we provide technical support to ensure the sustainable and benign operation of financial income of Jiangsu province and the reasonable expenses. First we determine the influence of fiscal revenue and expenditure risk indicators, construct Jiangsu province fiscal risk early warning index system, determine the risk interval of each index through ARCH method; and then through the AHP method we get the weight of each indicator is set, then we use comprehensive evaluation method to establish a fiscal risk early warning system in Jiangsu province. It contains some contents:Firstly, we defining the concept of fiscal risk and early warning method and determine the early warning method of fiscal risk, principles and objectives for the financial risk early warning system of local government function and construction of system analysis.Secondly, we construct the public finance risk warning index system of revenue and expenditure. At the beginning we establish the index system of fiscal revenue risk, including appropriate indicators, structural index, cost benefit index. Then, we establish the index system of fiscal expenditure risk, including gross index, structural investment benefit of financial indicators, indicators, efficiency indicators of fiscal expenditure. Based on the establishment of risk index system, we get the weight coefficient of each index was obtained by the improved AHP method. At last we determine the risk interval through the ARCH moderate warning limit method.Thirdly, we construct the risk warning system of financial revenue and expenditure taking Jiangsu Province as an example. We analyzed the causes of risk manifestation of risk in Jiangsu Province, and analyze the weight of index are and the critical value of fiscal risk of Jiangsu province by AHP model and ARCH model. Based on the balance of payments risk early-warning system of finance we development, we can analysis to the finance risk of Jiangsu province through visualization system. Then we can find out the important indexes affecting Jiangsu province fiscal risk, and analysis the fiscal risk Jiangsu province according to the result of early warning,.At last, we puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions according to the balance of payments situation of financial risk early warning of Jiangsu Province. And that is, we should control finance risk of Jiangsu province through the adjustment and optimization of the local fiscal expenditure structure, strengthen risk prediction and establish risk management mechanism and so on several aspects.