Sinopec Financial Early-warning Model And Design,

The financial crisis early-warning system based on accounting and financial information, is a system that can control and forecast alerts about financial risks that enterprises probably or will face by setting and observing changes of some sensitive financial indicators. With the accelerated pace of international economic integration, the international and domestic market competition that Chinese companies has to face has been becoming increasingly fierce. In order to survive and develop, companies need to establish an effective financial crisis early-warning system to achieve the maximum risk reduction. The financial crisis early-warning system can help enterprises avoid or reduce damages by real time tracking and monitoring the financial position of the enterprises, timely making financial early-warning analysis and early detecting financial distress signs.This thesis preliminarily filtered out 7 major categories and 14 indicators by distributing 280 copies of questionnaires to 50 enterprises owned by Sinopec, CNPC and CNOOC. Combining with the views of the respondents as well as the financial crisis early-warning theory, the financial crisis early-warning indicator system of Sinopec was preliminarily established. According to the characteristics of China's petrochemical industry, large amount of financial data from it has been extensively collected. Since various companies were impacted differently by the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the financial data in 2008 collected from these companies is not comparable. On the choice of sample, financial information in 2006 and 2007 from 18 listed companies in Company's petrochemical industry including special treatment (ST's) and non-ST is selected in this paper. Using the selected sample data and adopting logistic regression analysis method, the financial early-warning model applicable for Sinopec and its subsidiaries was designed in this paper. In addition, Pre-warning values that match the Logistic financial early-warning model are set, which are used to assess the financial risk of the companies owned by Sinopec.This thesis chooses Petrochemical Corporation and its three representative subsidiaries from its upstream, midstream and downstream as examples to test the feasibility of the established financial early-warning model in Petrochemical Corporation. The three representative subsidiaries are called Sinopec A Oilfield Company, Sinopec B Petroleum Company, and Sinopec C Petrochemical Company in this paper. The early-warning results of the logistic model got tested by analyzing three years of financial data and related financial information from 2005 to 2007. The test results are used to prove whether the logistic financial early-warning model is applicable for Sinopec and its subsidiaries.Finally, the financial risk early-warning information system based on Petrochemical Corporation financial data was implemented in this paper, which achieve the computerization of the financial risk early warning. The main function of the financial risk early-warning information system includes login module, software management module, importing model data module, model data entry module, and financial early-warning model analysis module. In the design of the software system, the user-friendly graphical interface and the strong degree of integration with early-warning model are achieved based on the consideration of the actual application. In addition, in this paper, the financial risk early-warning information system was verified by comparing the results of manual calculation and software output. The results show that the financial risk early-warning information system can accurately reflect the established early-warning model.