| Housing problem is related to the fundamental problems of national economy and people's livelihood. In order to maintain the harmonious development of society,the government must guarantee the rationality of the housing price and the stable development of the real estate market. However, real estate products'dual properties which includes consumption and investment arouses some problems in the process of market'turning of our country. Especially in recent years, soaring housing prices spurs real estate developers with the extreme enthusiasm to put more and more money into housing market which results that ordinary people cannot afford the high house prices and government regulation and control effect is not efficeient. Dalian is not exceptional from these problems. Local real estate prices'too fast growth recrease the living standard of local residents,and its closely relationship with other industries also interupt the whole economic'stable development Obviously, the real estate price is an important economic problem, as well as an important social problem.In this paper, based on the theories of real estate prices, regarding Dalian as the research object, the author analyze the effect factors of the city's real estate prices from two aspects:macro economy and micro features of housing. Using statistics data from the Dalian and the national bureau of statistics,combining with VAR model,the author analyze how some macroeconomic factors, including GDP of Dalian,M2, five-year lending rates as well as tourism income of this city, affect the city's real estate price. The analysis shows thatthe influence of the four macroeconomic variables to this city is significant in the long term but not in short term. In these macroeconomic variables, real estate prices are more easily affected by five-year loan interest rate, causing interest rate's change will mainly change the developers' capital cost, then to their providing price. In addition, this paper analyzes the tourism income's impact on prices, which cannot prove a scandal that the rapid development of the tourism industry promote significantly Dalian real estate prices. Then this article makes a further research. Choosing an administrative region Shahekou Distric as object which contains a national AAAAA-class tourist attractions, using datas from questionnaire survey and authoritative real estate website,the author analyzes the influences of some microscopic characteristic variables through Hedonic model. Finally, combined with the empirical results,the author put forwards some political suggestions aiming at housing price.In terms of research methods and contents, this paper mainly adopts the combination of statistical analysis and econometric analysis method. At the macro aspects, combining with the availability of data, referring to the experience of forefathers' research, this paper choose four factors in the VAR model which are GDP, M2, five-year lending rates, tourism income and analyze them through Granger causality analysis, impulse response function and variance decomposition. In terms of microscopic characteristics of the price,this paper chooses Shahekou District's 793 residential samples of 45 residential areas as the research object,and build Hedonic model to analyze many factors.On the aspect of innovation:firstly, this paper takes macro and micro factors into consideration; secondly, this paper chooses quarter data insteading of annul data; thirdly, this paper select some creative variables which is related Dalian'features. In addition, this is first time to build a Hedonic model in Shahekou District, and the author made a reasonable method to quantificat some un-continuous variables.Based on in this paper, the conclusion is as follows:Dalian city housing prices in the long run will be affected by regional GDP, M2, five-year loan interest rate and tourism income. Among them, the influence of interest rate is the most significant, but tourism income has little impact. In addition, after established Shahekou District' Hedonic model, the empirical results show that real estate prices will be really influenced by micro factors, and different characteristics have the different influences. Specifically, green area rate, distance to the Xinghai square surrounding traffic and medical conditions, property rights,room's orientation and community's size have no significant impact on housing prices. Rooms'number, floor area, layer number, property costs, decoration degree, surrounding education situation and business situation have positive effect on price, while architectural layers, plot ratio, the distance from the CBD have negative effect on prices.At the end of the paper,the author made some suggestions for the government, developers and consumers according to the empirical results And in terms of this article's research shortages,the author put forward some suggestions for subsequent research. |
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