Research On The Risk Assessment Model Of Business Interruption By Public Energy Supply

With the social progress and rising standards of people's living, the complication, development and automation of equipment and manufacturing systems, the significance of public energy becomes more and more obvious, the interruption of the public energy supply caused various accident, and people pay more attention to these accidents. The degree of dependence between different industries has increased, Almost every industry has some requirements of public energy. The different industrial characteristics result in varying degrees of demand of public energy. Because the serious business interruption loss and duration caused by public energy supply, it is particularly important to establish a scientific risk-assessment model for enterprise's own business interruption risk.The paper starts from the perspective of risk, a risk assessment model of business interruption caused by public energy supply is built, which could make some constructive suggestions for business decision of enterprise and also provide references for plan design of insurance. In this paper, on the basis of the relevant concepts defined, the relationship between public energy supply and business interruption is analyzed firstly. Moreover, a flow diagram of risk assessment of enterprise business interruption is constructed and through relevant methods and models combined the probability with the severity, enterprises business interruption risk caused by interruption of public energy supply is assessed comprehensively. Based on the markov theory of random process, the probability of business interruption risk caused by interruption of public energy supply is evaluated by using the state transfer matrix and the fuzzy synthetic evaluation. Combined different factors, such as the change of production line before and after the accident happens, the productivity in case of equipment failure and business interruption time and so on, the business interruption loss is evaluated. Finally, a case study is provided to illustrate the validity of building the business interruption risk assessment model.