The Research On Tendency Prediction For Credit Status Evolution Of Regional Enterprises

In recent years, the credit question has aroused the concern of the society from all walks of life. All levels of government invested large energy construction of social credit system. Enterprise credit is an important part of social credit, regional enterprise credit level for regional economic development has the vital significance. To study the evolution of regional enterprise credit state trend prediction, purpose is through the development of the regional enterprise credit status to predict the future, through a targeted adjustment factors indicators, credit state trajectory control area, strengthen credit management, promote the overall credit level of area, creating more conducive to regional economic development and people's life of credit order.Paper first to our country in different parts of the state of regional enterprise credit history evolution process of analysis, summarizes the evolution regularity of regional enterprise credit status. The study found that the evolution of the enterprise credit status in different parts of the area in our country overall showed a trend of fluctuations rise; According to the history data of regional enterprise credit status in different areas of the cluster, the differences found in different parts of the evolution, economic development level and geographic regional enterprise credit status evolution law of adjacent area there are similar characteristics.This paper analyses the factors that affect regional enterprise credit state of evolution. By determining the factors that affect the display of the indicators,using the double variable correlation analysis method, analyzes the various factors that affect the evolution of regional enterprise credit status, found that the factors such as economy, culture, government, enterprises are on evolution of enterprise credit status play a positive role in promoting, and the effects of economic and cultural factors lag, lag for phase 2.According to the evolvement of regional enterprise credit status and the influencing factors of research, using multiple regression and autoregression method, constructed the regional enterprise credit status evolution trend prediction model. Of 16 cities in Shandong province regional enterprise credit status evolution trend forecast, found that the proposed prediction model and analysis method to the evolution trend of regional enterprise credit status to make a scientific judgment, to improve the level of regional enterprise credit status for reference.