| As early as China formulated the national economy and social development "95"project and outline of the vision 2010 targets in 1995, the government had explicitly put forward the idea that making the economic growth mode change from extensive to intensive. Since then the government has adopted some policies and measures, especially after 2003, the central government even regard the transformation of economic growth mode as an important aspect of scientific outlook on development, but so far the progress of the transformation of the mode of economic growth in China is still slow. Currently, China economic growth mode is still high investment, high consumption, low quality, low efficiency. We believe, there is an.important and overlooked reason that the transformation of the mode of economic growth may result in some risks. Of these, financial risk, which absolutely cannot be ignored, is often caused by some enterprise level risk directly transmitting to the whole macroeconomy through financial system. During the process of transformation the economic growth mode, the extensive corporate profits decline and some even go into liquidation, which may caused bank loans cannot be repay on schedule or even cannot repay, finally leading to the bank's bad loans and bad debts that bring to the bank many unsystematic risks such as credit risk, liquidity risk, capital risk and so on. If the loans of enterprise that affected by the economic growth mode transformation focus on one bank and the affected enterprise are many enough, the bank may suffer squeeze or even close down. Since the wave of runs quickly spread to other banks, credit system may collapse and the whole macroeconomic will face great risks. Therefore, exploring the influence of policies and measures of transformation economic growth mode on our country finance,further analyzing the conduction mechanism of possible measures on financial risk, assessment the financial risk caused by the transformation of the mode of economic growth in China's policy options, will provide a theoretical reference and guidance with extremely strong realistic meaning. Those also are some explore in order to realize the sustainable development and maintains rapid growth more than 30 years after reform and opening-up.This paper have a deep analysis in the influence of economic growth policies and measures on our banking financial risk. Firstly, I consult a large number of document to clarify the background* objectives and policies and measures during the process of transformation economic growth mode, as well as the category and the causes of banking systemic financial risk, and try to organize some policy measures which may cause financial risk, preliminary obscure show the theorical logical order that is the policy measures in the transformation economic growth mode could result in banking financial risk. Secondly, I make a full analysis on the conduction mechanism from two policy measures,and then have a theoretical discussion and conclusion about the complicated and changeable conduction path. Thirdly, in order to intuitively illustrate the effect of economic growth policies and measures on banking financial risk, this paper take the low interest rate policy reform as example, set up monetary economic model and bring interest rates into the economic model, to analysis the influence of interest rate rise on financial risk to illustrate the transformation of economic growth pattern does impact on bank risk, thus enrich the theoretical basis. Fourthly, I take empirical ways to analysis the relation of China's economic growth and financial risk, first of all, this article refer the domestic and foreign research results, and consider actual situation of China's banking industry and the availability of data, thus using the factor analysis model to measure our banking systemic financial risk from 2007 to 2014; Secondly, considering availability of data and inflation factor, i also take factor analysis model to evaluate the dynamic changes of the economic growth from 2007 to 2014,; Finally, according to the calculated banking risk value and economic growth value,1 study the relationship between them, and the result show that China economic growth have a negative effect on banking financial risk, in other words, the policy measures of transformation economic growth mode could indeed lead to banking financial risk.The last part of the paper, basing on the impact of the policy measures on financial risk and considering our country actual situation, the government should set up a perfect risk control system to help the decision-making sector formulate related policy. |
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