The Real Estate Industry's Disequilibrium Impact On Macroeconomy Under The Condition Of Economic Growth Slowdown

The position of the real estate industry is very important in national economy, and is not only the providers of economic factors, but also a lot of demanders of economic elements; it has become the pillar industry of national economy in our country. The complex interaction mechanism between the real estate industry and the whole economy system makes for the management and regulation of the real estate industry into a complex work, house price fluctuations promote the economic fluctuations, as a result, the economic fluctuations promote house price fluctuations. Research on complicated relationship between the real estate industry and other industries and the whole national economy, has important theoretical and practical significance on the optimization of the real estate macroeconomic regulation and control, promoting the health of the real estate industry and national economy coordinated development.This paper, based on input-output price model, research the real estate industry's disequilibrium impact on macroeconomic under the condition of economic growth slowing by using 2007 and 2010 input-output tables.This paper firstly analyzes the industrial connection effect between real estate industry and other industries, and then finds that the development of the real estate industry in China is still in the amount of material capital consumption expansion phase, is more for production services, namely services for economic growth and expansion. Then we analyze the influence coefficient and the coefficients of induction, we think that the real estate industry's pulling power and driving force to the national economy are small, the real estate industry is neither a leading industry, nor is it a pillar industry.The innovation of this paper lies in the following two points:one is that we take example by the measuring method of Boqiang Lin (2009), which measures the impact of energy price fluctuations on the general price level, with four column vectors of input-output table:all the residents' consumption, the departments of industrial products combined, the fixed capital value and total output are reflection of the structure weight as departments, respectively to simulate the CPI, PPI, price index of investment in fixed assets, and changes in the GDP deflator. The simulation calculation of price index and price index of national economic accounting, although are in different calculation methods, but their essence is same, only our simulation method adopts more comprehensive products; Secondly, the paper compares prices volatility national accounting value and the potential impact on the CPI, think that China's CPI national accounts value underestimated the effects of house prices to the CPI, thus to reflect the actual impact on the CPI house prices, and consistent with the world's leading accounting methods, proposed raising the CPI national accounts in the proportion of housing consumer price index.Deficiency of this paper lies in the house price changes on the other industries' price influence is a process, and has transmission delays, to this point, our paper has no detailed analysis; For this class is not enough, we think future research direction can use CGE model (computable general equilibrium model) to analyze the relationship between house price and macroeconomic.