Consecutive Input-Output Analyzing Of 19 Departments In Guangdong Province During 1987-2012

This paper analyzed the consecutive years Input-Output data of Guangdong province and discussed Economic structure change tendency based on Integrated Econometric and Input-Output Model. It has finished the following work:First, it used Ratio decomposition method to convert ten years competitive Regional Input-Output charts to non-competitive Regional Input-Output charts and compared the different between non-competitive and competitive Regional Input-Output model, then pointed out the limited of non-competitive Regional Input-Output model.Second, this paper expounded the thought and method of constructing the EC+IO model.Modelling resident final consumption and compensation of employees based on Guangdong statistical yearbook over the years and ten years non-competitive Regional Input-Output data to activate regional Input-Output model and estimated the EC+IO model of Guangdong province. The new regional EC+IO model combined the characteristics of Econometric model and Input-Output model, also distinguished the production of the province or out of the province.At last, using the Guangdong regional EC+IO model estimated 19 departments consecutive years percentage of total output and added value, coefficient of capital equipment, residents’ consumption Induced coefficient of production, roduction’ s interdependency on consumption, representative years sensitivity coefficient and effect coefficient which distinguished the production of the province or out of the province.