A Study On Expansion Of Input-Output Model

Input-output (IO) theory was put forward by Wassily Leontief in 1936. Since then, as a classical analysis method, it has been widely used in economic analysis, and continuously improved and developed in practice. IO model provides a very detailed sectoral classification structure, and is widely used in economic forecasting, policy simulation, economic control and events impact. It is also a powerful tool for inter-sectoral economic relations analysis. With the object of national IO table and regional non-complementary import IO table, this paper makes an innovative study on model expansion, and has an important theoretical and practical significance in the development of IO theory and application.This paper uses both the two methods of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, then starts the research work with integrated econometrics + input-output (EC + IO) model as the main line. On the basis of summarizing relative literature and theories, the paper starts with establishment of the national integrated model, and extends to the regional integrated model through the regional IO table-type transformation, and then re-extends to IO spatial structural decomposition analysis(Spatial IO SDA) model which used for analyzing inter-regional economic growth factors.The paper follows the research idea which is from integrated model establishment to empirical analysis with the actual data. It is divided into the following eight sections.The first part of the thesis is the introduction. This part mainly presents the paper's research background, aims and significance, and also introduces the paper's research ideas, research content, research methods as well as the innovation.The second part is the literature review and theoretical basis, which summarizes the main relevant literature of IO method since it has been generated, clarifies theory origins and development context of IO method, then explores the frontier areas of its theoretical development, and consequently raises this paper's research issue.The third part establishes the national integrated EC + IO model. The integrated model not only retained the nature of the sector decomposition of IO model and added the random items of econometric model, and it absorbed the advantages of IO model with econometrics model. The integrated model enhanced analysis capability of theoretical model by emboding the detailed sectoral classification structure but also containing the data model with randomness, this is not only the development of theory, but also the requirement of practical problems. At the same time, to some extent, the integrated national EC + IO model makes a link between the Statistical Yearbook and IO data, and it developed the data sequence of non-compilation years of IO table, to strengthening the integrity of data and expanding the data application areas.The fourth part is a empirical analysis of integrated national EC + IO model. This part uses the national final demand data from 1987 to 2007 to make an empirical analysis, which used to evaluate the analytical capabilities of the integrated model. According to availability of data, first, set up the econometric model for consumption of resident based on time-series data and panel data respectively; second, set up the time series model for government consumption, fixed capital and the export; at last, analyze the industrial structure and industrial linkage over the past decade of China by using the integrated national EC + IO model, with the substitution of estimated parameters of the above econometric models into input-output model.The fifth part explores the compilation method of regional IO table. At the present, the regional table in each province and city of our country are complementary import-type. These tables do not make any distinction between foreign inflow products and locally-produced products. When the exchange between regions increasing, the non-integrality of regional economy leads to some deviation when these IO tables are used for analyzing regional economy. This part analyses the Compilation method and defects of the traditional regional IO table, and based on this, this paper explores the new preparation approaches of non-complementary import regional IO table: One is puts forward the rate decomposition method, and uses the non-survey method to transforming the existing complementary type regional IO table into non-complementary IO table; the other is, on the basis of practical investigation, putting forward a feasible investigation method to compiling non-complementary import regional IO table.The sixth part researches the integrated regional EC + IO model. This part is the extension of the integrated national EC + IO model, and it is the specific application of the new preparation approaches for non-complementary import regional IO table. According to the row balance relation and the column balance relation of IO model, establishes the row and the column relation integrated regional EC + IO model respectively. The row relation integrated regional model uses 17×17 IO table from 1992 to 2007 in Henan Province and the data over the years from Statistical Yearbook of Henan Province to make an empirical analysis. It mainly analyzes changing situation of economic structure and industrial correlation degree in Henan Province over the past ten years. The column relation integrated regional EC + IO model uses the data of IO table and Statistical Yearbook from 1990 to 2007 in Henan Province to make an empirical analysis. Then we analyze dependence degree of each production sector in Henan Province on the local products and the on local products.The seventh part is the Spatial IO SDA model. This part is based on the non-complementary regional IO table, this part combines the concept of space, the structure decomposition analysis with the IO method together, establishes Spatial IO SDA integrated model. Spatial IO SDA model is decomposing complex or chaotic relationship in the different space into a clear hierarchical structure, and it can analyzes the affecting factors of geographic differences. With the rapid development of China's regional economy, the differences of inter-regional economic development have emerged, so it has some practical significance to study the differences and impact factors. Finally, this part uses non- complementary import IO table of 17×17 sectors in 2002 of Henan Province and Shanxi Province to make a empirical analysis of the Spatial IO SDA model. It decomposes the inter-regional economic differences into a few changes of fundamental factors in order to clearly trace the source of differences in regional output growth and the impact degree of these fundamental factors.The eighth part is the summary and outlook of this paper. This part summarizes the main points of view in this thesis and puts forward the major problems for the further study. The main innovations of the thesis:1. Integrated the input-output model with econometrics model to establish integrated national and regional EC + IO model system, and develop IO sequence table of non-compilation years by using the integrated model. IO model is a static deterministic model, which provides a very detailed sectoral classification structure. Econometric (EC) model is usually dynamic, and it contains a stochastic component. Through the establishment of integrated model, the paper combines the uncertainty of the realistic economy with the detailed sectoral classification structure together to extend the classical IO model. Due to the complexity of economic systems, the compilation of IO table is a huge project, so it is compiled every five years and it is often not continuously. And due to different sectoral classification criteria, it is very difficult to have a good butt between IO table and the annual "Statistical Yearbook", or to make a comparative analysis of the sector economy consecutive. Through the establishment of integrated EC + IO model, this thesis not only estimates the IO table of non-compilation years but also combines the data from Yearbook with the special survey data for IO, and gives the concrete method to solve above difficult.2. To compile non-complementary import regional IO table. The openness of regional economy determines the interaction inter-regional economy and the constraints from each other, which comes on through the quantitative relations of inter-regional products inflow and outflow. However, the current compiled regional IO table, which belong to non-complementary type, do not make any distinction between foreign products and locally-produced products. This situation can not meet the times requirements of the rapid development of China's regional economy, and it can produces the deviation during analyzing regional economy, so it greatly restricts the application of the regional IO table in economic research. On the basis of in-depth investigation, this paper explores the new preparation approaches with reference the foreign scholars'non-investigation method, and to transform existing complementary import regional IO table into non- complementary import regional IO table.3. To establish Spatial IO SDA model to analyze the impact factors of inter-regional economic growth, and makes a empirical analysis with the use of provincial-level IO data. Based on non-complementary import regional IO table, the scope of economic analysis has been greatly expanded. In order to carry out analysis of regional economic disparities, the paper combines the concept of space, spatial structure decomposition technique with IO method to create Spatial IO SDA, which carries out factor analysis by decomposing complex or chaotic relationship in the different space into a clear hierarchical structure. Foreign scholars have carried out a exploratory research on the application of this method in a series of economic, resources and environment problems. However, in our country, the research literature about IO SDA model is less, the study on Spatial IO SDA model with the concept of space is almost in a state of emptiness.