| As the third industry,the real estate industry plays an irreplaceable role in economic development.At the moment,the real estate enterprises have strong ability of market control as well as the ability to attract resources,the pattern of the real estate industry presents the strong stronger.Therefore,real estate appraisal,especially the construction in process appraisal has a great reference in the real estate enterprises management,development,merger and acquisition.The hypothetical development method is frequently used in construction appraisal.But the hypothetical development method need to consider many factors in the process of evaluation,the reasonable parameter selection is the important link of the effective and accurate valuation result.Basing on the theory of construction in process and the basis of the hypothetical development method,confirmed the applicability and rationality of hypothetical development method,which used in construction in process appraisal.Secondly,based on the difficulties when using the hypothetical development method,improve the estimation of the real estate value after completion with the fuzzy mathematics;Improve the CAPM model by adding the company scale premiums and specific enterprise individual risk when estimate discount rate,than analyzing the large sample to confirm the company scale premiums estimate formula;Adjust the β coefficient of CAPM model.Finally,use TY construction in process project as the actual conditions case,and compare the estimate value of the project after using the improved traditional way and discount cash flow way.The paper improves the hypothetical development method from the practical aspect,and application it to the actual case.The results proved that,the improved hypothetical development method is reasonable in appraising value of construction in process.In the final,analyze the improved hypothetical development,and propose the problem such as continuation profit,profit margin estimation. |
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